基于水资源系统健康的区域水资源承载力评价

针对传统水资源承载力研究中评价标准比较单一、评价结果相对简化等问题, 提出了基于水资源系统健康的 水资源承载力理念, 建立了与之相应的区域水资源承载力评价的指标体系; 吸取层次分析法蕴含决策经验意见的功 能和离差最大化法反映客观标准的优点, 构建了一种组合赋权法; 依照属性识别理论的置信准则和评分准则建立基 于组合权重的集对分析评价模型, 并对山西省大同市水资源承载力进行了评价。结果表明: 2005 年- 2012 年间, 大 同市水资源承载力指数在0. 499~ 0. 728 之间, 随着大同市节水型城市建设的推进和绿色经济发展的转变, 水资源 承载力水平在逐年增强; 但水资源系统长期处于亚健康状态, 应加大水资源管理、水环境保护及水污染控制的力度, 以改善未来水资源系统的健康状态。 The traditional w ater resour ces carr ying capacity assessment st andards and results a re relatively simplified. In t his pa2 per, the concept of w ater resources car ry ing capacity ( WRCC) based on the w ater resources sy st em health was pr oposed, and the co rr esponding index sy stem and evaluat ion standard fo r the r eg io nal WRCC w ere developed. In addition, the combination weigh2 ting approach w as established to evaluate the WRCC based on the decision making functio n in analytic hierar chy pro cess ( AH P) and the adv antag e of objective standard reflected by the maximum dev iation metho d. The set pair analy sis mo del was dev eloped based on the confidence rule and scor ing rule o f att ribute recog nition theor y, and it was applied to analyze the WRCC in Datong of Shanx i Prov ince. The r esults show ed that the WRCC indicato r va ries between 0. 499 and 0. 728 from 2005 to 2012; the WRCC of Dato ng incr eases annually w ith the pr omotion o f water2saving cit y const ruct ion and gr een economic dev elo pment; and the w ater r esources sy stem is in sub2health status, so the measures of w ater resources manag ement, water envir onment pr otec2 tion, and w ater po llution co nt ro l should be taken to impro ve the wat er resour ces system health. 国家自然科学基金项目( 51279062; 51179069; 41340022) ; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助( 13QN22; 13XS23; 13XS 24; 2014XS51)