三种拟合评价法计算水文频率的比较

水文频率计算中优选参数的原则为: 理论频率曲线和经验点配合最好。介绍了 Excel、 频率计算软件、 集对分 析三种拟合评价在水文频率计算中的应用, 分析了各种方式的优缺点。Excel 法、 频率计算软件以离差平方和为量 化准则优选参数, 但是该指标不灵敏。集对分析法根据联系数及 a, b, c 的数量综合分析水文频率曲线与实测点的 拟合程度, 该法为适线拟合定量评价开辟了一条新途径, 一定程度上克服了常规目估适线法的主观任意性。 The principle of parameter selections in the hydrologic frequency calculation is that the theoretical frequency curve matches with the empirical points. In this paper, three fitting evaluation applications and their advantages and disadvantages in the hydrologic frequency calculation are investigated, including Excel, frequency calculation software, and set pair analysis. T he Excel method and frequency calculation software use the sum of deviation square as the parameter selection criteria but it is in2 sensitive. According to connection number and the amount of a, b and c, the fitting degree between the frequency curve and measured points is analyzed by set pair analysis. This is a new way to evaluate the fitting of frequency curve quantitatively, which can avoid the subjective arbitrariness of current curve fitting methods. 国家自然科学基金面上项目( 51079165) ; 国家自然科学基金( 51479015) ; 西部交通建设科技项目( 2009328814012)