基于系统多层次灰色模型的洪灾风险综合评价方法-以鄱阳湖流域为例

洪水灾害风险评价是一个多因素协同影响效应的系统过程。在分析洪水风险系统的基础上, 并从洪水风险评 估的角度, 综合考虑了致灾因子, 孕灾环境和承灾体的相关因素, 构建了洪水灾害风险综合评价体系, 融合灰色聚类 法与层次分析的数据处理优势, 提出了适应洪水灾害风险预测的系统多层次灰色综合评价方法。以鄱阳湖流域为 例, 通过定性与定量分析相结合, 对鄱阳湖流域洪水风险系统进行了综合评价, 为流域内洪水灾害风险综合评价提 供了参考依据。 Floo d r isk assessment is a systematic pro cess with t he synerg y effects betw een mult iple factor s. Based o n the analy sis of flood r isk system, a compr ehensive flo od r isk assessment system w as co nstr ucted in consideratio n o f the fact ors including the disaster2inducing facto rs, disaster2inducing environment, and disast er bear ing bo dy f rom the perspect ive of flo od r isk evaluation. The data pro cessing advantag es o f gr ay cluster ing method and analytical hier archy pr ocess( AH P) w ere integ rated and a com2 prehensive evaluat ion method o f multi2 level g ray system w as pro po sed to adapt the flo od disaster r isk predictio n. T he method was applied in the Poy ang Lake Basin. The combinatio n of qualitative and quantitativ e analy sis of the flo od r isk system in the Poy ang Lake Basin can pro vide reference for the compr ehensive evaluat ion of floo d r isk in the basin. 国家自然科学基金( 41261053)