基于海南省主要城市商品住宅价格的数据和相关研究文献，运用MATLAB软件和SPSS软件中皮尔逊相关系数、卡方检验的方法对某些相关因素进行了定量、定性分析，进一步采用主成分分析的方法提取主成分，建立回归方程，对模型进一步优化和检验，据此建立海南省商品住宅价格的数学模型，并利用粗糙集理论和灰色预测模型，找出相关性最大的指标，预测了海南省商品住宅价格的变化趋势。此外，还构建了VAR模型，将限购政策的实施和取消作为虚拟变量，用Eviews 8.0进行自回归分析，定量讨论了政策对房价市场的影响。
Based on the data of commodity housing prices in the major cities of
Hainan Province and the relevant research literature, this paper makes a
quantitative and qualitative analysis of some related factors by using Pearson
correlation coefficient in MATLAB software and SPSS software and chi-square
test method. Furthermore, principal components are extracted by principal
component analysis, regression equation is established, the model is further
optimized and tested, and then the mathematical model of commodity housing
price in Hainan Province is established, and the rough set theory and grey
prediction model are used to find out the biggest correlation index, and forecast
the change trend of commodity housing price in Hainan Province. In addition, a
VAR model was built to implement the purchase restriction policy Applying and Canceling
as virtual variables, autoregressive analysis is carried out with Eviews 8.0. The
influence of policy on house price market is discussed quantitatively.
