It is commonly accepted that the current global warming is caused by humans, especially by anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide. It is justifiably considered to be one of the biggest threats for life on the planet and human civilization. However, since millennia humans have been changing the climate locally and globally. Especially after the development of agriculture and animal husbandry people have been progressively increasing the albedo of the planet. The cooling of the climate that took place since the Neolithic Revolution and lasted until the onset of the Industrial Revolution corresponds better with the growth of human population than with any other factor. The current global warming threatens with drought, hunger, migrations and inundation of coastal areas. However, throughout the human history, it was the cooling that was related to drought and hunger. The cooling and drought that occurred about 4.2 thousand years ago (the 4.2 ky event) were the most severe. It resulted in the collapse of all Neolithic civilizations. Its reason is still not explained. This paper presents a hypothesis how people could unwillingly cause change in monsoons’ strength and direction as well as global climate catastrophe that occurred 4.2 thousand years ago.
References
[1]
Indermühle, A., Stocker, T.F., Joos, F., Fischer, H., Smith, H.J., Wahlen, M., Meyer, R., et al. (1999) Holocene Carbon-Cycle Dynamics Based on CO2 Trapped in Ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica. Nature, 398, 121. https://doi.org/10.1038/18158
[2]
Walker, M., Head, M.H., Berklehammer, M., Bjorck, S., Cheng, H., Cwynar, L., Newnham, R., et al. (2018) Formal Ratification of the Subdivision of the Holocene Series/Epoch (Quaternary System/Period): Two New Global Boundary Stratotype Sections and Points (GSSPs) and Three New Stages/Subseries.
https://doi.org/10.18814/epiiugs/2018/018016
[3]
Ellison, C.R., Chapman, M.R. and Hall, I.R. (2006) Surface and Deep Ocean Interactions during the Cold Climate Event 8200 Years Ago. Science, 312, 1929-1932.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1127213
[4]
Von Grafenstein, U., Erlenkeuser, H., Müller, J., Jouzel, J. and Johnsen, S. (1998) The Cold Event 8200 Years Ago Documented in Oxygen Isotope Records of Precipitation in Europe and Greenland. Climate Dynamics, 14, 73-81.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050210
[5]
Nebout, N.C., Turon, J.L., Zahn, R., Capotondi, L., Londeix, L. and Pahnke, K. (2002) Enhanced Aridity and Atmospheric High-Pressure Stability over the Western Mediterranean during the North Atlantic Cold Events of the Past 50 ky. Geology, 30, 863-866.
https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2002)030<0863:EAAAHP>2.0.CO;2
[6]
Blanchon, P. and Shaw, J. (1995) Reef Drowning during the Last Deglaciation: Evidence for Catastrophic Sea-Level Rise and Ice-Sheet Collapse. Geology, 23, 4-8.
https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1995)023<0004:RDDTLD>2.3.CO;2
[7]
Yasuda, Y., Kitagawa, H. and Nakagawa, T. (2000) The Earliest Record of Major Anthropogenic Deforestation in the Ghab Valley, Northwest Syria: A Palynological Study. Quaternary International, 73-74, 127-136.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(00)00069-0
[8]
Szczęsny, T.J. (2016) Was the 4.2 ka Event an Anthropogenic Disaster? Open Journal of Ecology, 6, Article ID: 70886. https://doi.org/10.4236/oje.2016.610058
[9]
Wright, D.K. (2017) Humans as Agents in the Termination of the African Humid Period. Frontiers in Earth Science, 5, 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2017.00004
[10]
Szczęsny, T. (2019) How to Curb the Global Warming. Part 1: The Past Climate in the Holocene. https://www.oficyna-notitia.com/online-store
[11]
Parker, A., Eckersley, L., Smith, M.M., Goudie, A.S., Stokes, S., Ward, S., White, K. and Hodson, M.J. (2004) Holocene Vegetation Dynamics in the Northeastern Rub’ al-Khali Desert, Arabian Peninsula: A Phytolith, Pollen and Carbon Isotope Study. Journal of Quaternary Science, 19, 665-676. https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.880
[12]
Tierney, J.E., Lewis, S.C., Cook, B.I., LeGrande, A.N. and Schmidt, G.A. (2011) Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 307, 103-112.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.04.038
[13]
Kuper, R. and Kröpelin, S. (2006) Climate-Controlled Holocene Occupation in the Sahara: Motor of Africa’s Evolution. Science, 313, 803-807.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1130989
[14]
Kuper, R. (2006) After 5000 BC: The Libyan Desert in Transition. Comptes Rendus Palevol, 5, 409-419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crpv.2005.10.013
[15]
Hartman, D.L. (1994) Global Physical Climatology. Academic Press, Cambridge.
[16]
Young, E. (2007) Pharaohs from the Stone Age. New Scientist, 13, 34-38.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0262-4079(07)60102-X
[17]
Manning, K. and Timpson, A. (2014) The Demographic Response to Holocene Climate Change in the Sahara. Quaternary Science Reviews, 101, 28-35.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.07.003
[18]
Kindermann, K., Bubenzer, O., Nussbaum, S., Riemer, H., Darius, F., Pöllath, N. and Smettan, U. (2006) Palaeoenvironment and Holocene Land Use of Djara, Western Desert of Egypt. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 1619-1637.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.12.005
[19]
Junges, W. (1957) Die jährliche Niederschlagsverteilung Als Entscheidender Faktorbei der photoperiodischen Anpassung der Pflanzen. Gartenbauwissenschaft, 22, 527-540.
[20]
Hruška, B. (1990) Das landwirtschaftliche Jahr im alten Sumer: Versuch einer zeitlichen Rekonstruktion. Bulletin on Sumerian Agriculture, 5, 105-114.
[21]
Riehl, S., Bryson, R. and Pustovoytov, K. (2008) Changing Growing Conditions for Crops during the Near Eastern Bronze Age (3000-1200 BC): The Stable Carbon Isotope Evidence. Journal of Archaeological Science, 35, 1011-1022.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2007.07.003
[22]
Di Lernia, S. (2006) Building Monuments, Creating Identity: Cattle Cult as a Social Response to Rapid Environmental Changes in the Holocene Sahara. Quaternary International, 151, 50-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2006.01.014
[23]
Krzyzaniak, L. (1991) Early Farming in the Middle Nile Basin: Recent Discoveries at Kadero (Central Sudan). Antiquity, 65, 515-532.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003598X0008011X
[24]
Lindstädter, J. and Kröpelin, S. (2004) Waki Bakht Revisited: Holocene Climate Change and Prehistoric Occupation in the Gilf Kebir Region of the Eastern Sahara, SW Egypt. Geoarcheology: An International Journal, 19, 753-778.
https://doi.org/10.1002/gea.20023
[25]
Moeyersons, J., Vermeersch, P.M., Beeckman, H. and van Peer, P. (1999) Holocene Environmental Changes in the Gebel Umm Hammad, Eastern Desert, Egypt. Geomorphology, 26, 297-312. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(98)00067-1
[26]
McDonald, M.M.A. (1998) Early African Pastoralism: View from Dakhleh Oasis (South Central Egypt). Journal of Anthropological Archeology, 17, 124-142.
https://doi.org/10.1006/jaar.1998.0320
[27]
Crawford, H. (2013) The Sumerian World. Routledge, Abingdon-on-Thames.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203096604
[28]
Jarrige, J.F. and Meadow, R.H. (1980) The Antecedents of Civilization in the Indus Valley. Scientific American, 243, 122-137.
https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0880-122
[29]
An, C.B., Feng, Z.D. and Barton, L. (2006) Dry or Humid? Mid-Holocene Humidity Changes in Arid and Semi-Arid China. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 351-361.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.03.013
[30]
Jiang, W., Guo, Z., Sun, X., Wu, H., Chu, G., Yuan, B., Guiot, J., et al. (2006) Reconstruction of Climate and Vegetation Changes of Lake Bayanchagan (Inner Mongolia): Holocene Variability of the East Asian Monsoon. Quaternary Research, 65, 411-420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2005.10.007
[31]
Long, H., Lai, Z., Wang, N. and Li, Y. (2010) Holocene Climate Variations from Zhuyeze Terminal Lake Records in East Asian Monsoon Margin in Arid Northern China. Quaternary Research, 74, 46-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2010.03.009
[32]
Maher, B.A. (2008) Holocene Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon from Chinese Cave Records: A Re-Assessment. The Holocene, 18, 861-866.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683608095569
[33]
Peng, Y., Xiao, J., Nakamura, T., Liu, B. and Inouchi, Y. (2005) Holocene East Asian Monsoonal Precipitation Pattern Revealed by Grain-Size Distribution of Core Sediments of Daihai Lake in Inner Mongolia of North-Central China. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 233, 467-479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.02.022
[34]
Xiao, J., Xu, Q., Nakamura, T., Yang, X., Liang, W. and Inouchi, Y. (2004) Holocene Vegetation Variation in the Daihai Lake Region of North-Central China: A Direct Indication of the Asian Monsoon Climatic History. Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 1669-1679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.01.005
[35]
Djamali, M., Akhani, H., Andrieu-Ponel, V., et al. (2010) Indian Summer Monsoon Variations Could Have Affected the Early-Holocene Woodland Expansion in the Near East. The Holocene, 20, 813-820. http://whc.unesco.org/document/151856
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610362813
[36]
Cheddadi, R. and Rossignol-Strick, M. (1995) Eastern Mediterranean Quaternary Paleoclimates from Pollen and Isotope Records of Marine Cores in the Nile Cone Area. Paleoceanography, 10, 291-300. https://doi.org/10.1029/94PA02672
[37]
Viollet, P.L. (2010) Water Engineering and Management in the Early Bronze Age Civilizations. In: Cabrera, E., Ed., Water Engineering and Management through Time Learning from History, CRC Press, London. https://doi.org/10.1201/b10560
[38]
http://whc.unesco.org/document/151856
[39]
Spengler, R.N., et al. (2013) Archaeobotanical Results from Sarazm, Tajikistan, an Early Bronze Age Settlement on the Edge: Agriculture and Exchange. Journal of Environmental Archaeology, 18, 211-221.
https://doi.org/10.1179/1749631413Y.0000000008
Sterling, S. (1999) Mortality Profiles as Indicators of Slowed Reproductive Rates: Evidence from Ancient Egypt. Journal of Anthropological Archaeology, 18, 319-343.
https://doi.org/10.1006/jaar.1999.0344
[42]
Gibbons, A. (1993) How the Akkadian Empire Was Hung Out to Dry. Science, 261, 985-986. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.261.5124.985
[43]
Linden, E. (2006) The Winds of Change: Climate, Weather, and the Destruction of Civilizations. Simon and Schuster, New York.
[44]
Roland, T.P., Caseldine, C.J., Charman, D.J., Turney, C.S.M. and Amesbury, M.J. (2014) Was There a “4.2 ka Event” in Great Britain and Ireland? Evidence from the Peatland Record. Quaternary Science Reviews, 83, 11-27.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.10.024
[45]
Bond, G., Showers, W., Cheseby, M., Lotti, R., Almasi, P., Priore, P. and Bonani, G.A. (1997) Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates. Science, 278, 1257-1266.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.278.5341.1257
[46]
Debret, M., Bout-Roumazeilles, V., Grousset, F., Desmet, M., McManus, J.F., Massei, N. and Trentesaux, A. (2007) The Origin of the 1500-Year Climate Cycles in Holocene North-Atlantic Records. Climate of the Past Discussions, 3, 679-692.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-3-679-2007
[47]
Ning, L., Liu, J., Bradley, R.S. and Yan, M. (2019) Comparing the Spatial Patterns of Climate Change in the 9th and 5th Millennia BP from TRACE-21 Model Simulations. Climate of the Past, 15, 41-52. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-41-2019
[48]
Turney, C., Baillie, M., Clemens, S., Brown, D., Palmer, J., Pilcher, J., Reimer, P. and Leuschner, H.H. (2005) Testing Solar Forcing of Pervasive Holocene Climate Cycles. Journal of Quaternary Science, 20, 511-518. https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.927
[49]
Wanner, H., Beer, J., Bütikofer, J., Crowley, T.J., Cubasch, U., Flückiger, J., Goosse, H., Grosjean, M., Joos, F., Kaplan, J.O., Küttel, M., Müller, S.A., Prentice, I.C., Solomina, O., Stocker, T.F., Tarasov, P., Wagner, M. and Widmann, M. (2008) Mid- to Late-Holocene Climate Change: An Overview. Quaternary Science Reviews, 27, 1791-1828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.06.013
[50]
Sigl, M., Severi, M. and McConnell, J.R. (2008) A Role for Volcanoes in Causing the “4.2 Ka BP Event”? The 4.2 Ka BP Event: An International Workshop, Pisa, 10-12 January 2018.
[51]
Chang, K.C. (1999) China on the Eve of the Historical Period. The Cambridge History of Ancient China: From the Origins of Civilization to, 221, 37-73.
https://doi.org/10.1017/CHOL9780521470308.003
[52]
An, Z., Porter, S.C., Kutzbach, J.E., Xihao, W., Suming, W., Xiaodong, L., Weijian, Z., et al. (2000) A Synchronous Holocene Optimum of the East Asian Monsoon. Quaternary Science Reviews, 19, 743-762.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00031-1
[53]
Huguet, C., Kim, J.H., Sinninghe Damsté, J.S. and Schouten, S. (2006) Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature Variations in the Arabian Sea over the Last 23 kyr Using Organic Proxies (TEX 86 and U 37 K’). Paleoceanography, 21, PA3003.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005PA001215
[54]
Saher, M., Jung, S., Elderfield, H., Greaves, M. and Kroon, D. (2007) Sea Surface Temperatures of the Western Arabian Sea during the Last Deglaciation. Paleoceanography, 22, PA2208. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006PA001292
[55]
Balaji, D., Bhushan, R. and Chamyal, L.S. (2018) Variations of the Somali Upwelling since 18.5 ka BP and Its Relationship with Southwest Monsoon Rainfall. Climate of the Past, 14, 1331-1343. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1331-2018
[56]
Wolff, C., Plessen, B., Dudashvilli, A.S., Breitenbach, S.F., Cheng, H., Edwards, L.R. and Strecker, M.R. (2017) Precipitation Evolution of Central Asia during the Last 5000 Years. The Holocene, 27, 142-154. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616652711
[57]
Finkenbinder, M.S., Abbott, M.B. and Steinman, B.A. (2016) Holocene Climate Change in Newfoundland Reconstructed Using Oxygen Isotope Analysis of Lake Sediment Cores. Global and Planetary Change, 143, 251-261.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.014
[58]
Jones, R. (1969) Fire-Stick Farming. Australian Natural History, 16, 224-228.
[59]
Jones, R. (2012) Fire-Stick Farming. Fire Ecology, 8, 3-8.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03400623
[60]
Masse, B. (1998) Earth, Air, Fire, and Water: The Archaeology of Bronze Age Cosmic Catastrophes. In: Peiser, B.J., Palmer, T. and Bailey, M.E., Eds., Natural Catastrophes during Bronze Age Civilisations: Archaeological, Geological, Astronomical and Cultural Perspectives, Archaeo Press, Oxford, 78-79.
[61]
Young Jr, T.C. (1973) Archeology: The Cambridge Ancient History. Volume One, Part Two: Early History of the Middle East. American Anthropologist, 75, 1110-1111.
https://doi.org/10.1525/aa.1973.75.4.02a01360
[62]
Makowski, M. TELL ARBID I. Clay Figurines.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Maciej_Makowski2/publication/328383324_Tell_Arbid _I_Clay_figurines/links/5bc9c81b92851cae21b24691/Tell-Arbid-I-Clay-figurines.pdf
[63]
Owen, D.I. (1991) The First Equestrian: An Ur III Glyptic Scene. Acta Sumerologica, 13, 259-273.
[64]
Fontes, J.C., Melieres, F., Gibert, E., Qing, L. and Gasse, F. (1993) Stable Isotope and Radiocarbon Balances of Two Tibetan Lakes (Sumxi Co, Longmu Co) from 13,000 BP. Quaternary Science Reviews, 12, 875-887.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0277-3791(93)90026-I
[65]
Anthony, D.W. (2007) The Horse the Wheel and Language. How Bronze-Age Riders from the Eurasian Steppes Shaped the Modern World. Princeton University Press, Princeton. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831104
[66]
Huang, C.C., Pang, J., Zha, X., Su, H. and Jia, Y. (2011) Extraordinary Floods Related to the Climatic Event at 4200 a BP on the Qishuihe River, Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, China. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 460-468.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.12.007
[67]
Wu, W.X. and Liu, T.S. (2004) Possible Role of the “Holocene Event 3” on the Collapse of Neolithic Cultures around the Central Plain of China. Quaternary International, 117, 153-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(03)00125-3
[68]
Street-Perrott, F.A. and Perrott, R.A. (1990) Abrupt Climate Fluctuations in the Tropics: The Influence of Atlantic Ocean Circulation. Nature, 343, 607-612.
https://doi.org/10.1038/343607a0
[69]
Thompson, L.G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M.E., Henderson, K.A., Brecher, H.H., Zagorodnov, V.S., Beer, J., et al. (2002) Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa. Science, 298, 589-593.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1073198
[70]
Costa, K., Russell, J., Konecky, B. and Lamb, H. (2014) Isotopic Reconstruction of the African Humid Period and Congo Air Boundary Migration at Lake Tana, Ethiopia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 83, 58-67.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.10.031
[71]
Yan, M. and Liu, J. (2019) Physical Processes of Cooling and Mega-Drought during the 4.2 ka BP Event: Results from TraCE-21ka Simulations. Climate of the Past, 15, 265-277. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-265-2019
[72]
Klus, A., Prange, M., Varma, V., Tremblay, L.B. and Schulz, M. (2018) Abrupt Cold Events in the North Atlantic Ocean in a Transient Holocene Simulation. Climate of the Past, 14, 1165-1178. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1165-2018
[73]
Lin, J.-S., Wu, B. and Zhou, T.-J. (2016) Is the Interdecadal Circumglobal Teleconnection Pattern Excited by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation? Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9, 451-457. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2016.1233800
[74]
Stanley, J.D., Krom, M.D., Cliff, R.A. and Woodward, J.C. (2003) Short Contribution: Nile Flow Failure at the End of the Old Kingdom, Egypt: Strontium Isotopic and Petrologic Evidence. Geoarchaeology, 18, 395-402.
https://doi.org/10.1002/gea.10065
[75]
Thompson, L.G., Mosley-Thompson, E. and Henderson, K.A. (2000) Ice-Core Palaeoclimate Records in Tropical South America since the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Quaternary Science: Published for the Quaternary Research Association, 15, 377-394.
https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-1417(200005)15:4<377::AID-JQS542>3.0.CO;2-L
[76]
Booth, R., Jackson, S., Forman, S., Kutzbach, J., Bettis, E., Kreigs, J. and Wright, D. (2005) A Severe Centennial-Scale Drought in Mid-Continental North America 4200 Years Ago and Apparent Global Linkages, The Holocene, 15, 321-328.
https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl825ft
[77]
Aizen, E.M., Aizen, V.B., Takeuchi, N., Mayewski, P.A., Grigholm, B., Joswiak, D.R., Schwikowski, M., et al. (2016) Abrupt and Moderate Climate Changes in the Mid-Latitudes of Asia during the Holocene. Journal of Glaciology, 62, 411-439.
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.34
[78]
Catto, N. and Catto, G. (2004) Climate Change, Communities, and Civilizations: Driving Force, Supporting Player, or Background Noise? Quaternary International, 123-125, 7-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2004.02.002
[79]
Brooks, N. (2006) Cultural Responses to Aridity in the Middle Holocene and Increased Social Complexity. Quaternary International, 151, 29-49.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2006.01.013
[80]
Weiss, H., Courty, M.-A., Wetterstrom, W., Guichard, F., Senior, L., Meadow, R. and Curnow, A. (1993) The Genesis and Collapse of Third Millennium North Mesopotamian Civilization. Science, 261, 995-1004.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.261.5124.995
[81]
Speiser, E.A. (1953) Early Law and Civilization. Canadian Bar Review, 31, 863.
[82]
Speiser, E.A. (1963) Cuneiform Law and the History of Civilization. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 107, 536-541.
Miller, D. (1985) Ideology and the Harappan Civilization. Journal of Anthropological Archaeology, 4, 34-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0278-4165(85)90013-3
[85]
Mughal, D.M.R. (1990) Further Evidence of the Early Harappan Culture in the Greater Indus Valley: 1971-90. South Asian Studies, 6, 175-199.
https://doi.org/10.1080/02666030.1990.9628411
[86]
Possehl, G.L. (1997) The Transformation of the Indus Civilization. Journal of World Prehistory, 11, 425-472. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02220556
[87]
Mughal, D.M.R. (1990) The Decline of the Indus Civilization and the Late Harappan Period in the Indus Valley. Lahore Museum Bulletin, 3, 1-22.
[88]
Lemmen, C. and Khan, A. (2012) A Simulation of the Neolithic Transition in the Indus Valley. Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations, 198, 107-114.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GM001217
[89]
Liu, C. and Ma, L.J. (1983) Interbasin Water Transfer in China. Geographical Review, 73, 253-270. https://doi.org/10.2307/214833
