The influence of social institutions in the management of control of access to watershed resources in a changing climate has not been fully explored. This study examined the influence of social factor variables on the management of control of access to Awoja watershed. The study was conducted in Awoja watershed in Eastern Uganda facing frequent floods and draughts. The study used a cross sectional research design involving factor analysis and logistical regression to determine the influence of social contextual factors on watershed management. Qualitative methods were also used to explain statistical trends. From the household survey data correlation results indicated that, there was a significant relationship between the social issues and management of the watershed (r = 0.353, P < 0.01). The results however indicated a negative relationship between social issues and climate change factor (r = −0.489, P < 0.01). This means that as climate change increases, the ability to control access to watershed resources decreases. From the factor analysis results five factors were significantly correlated to the control of access: declining cohesion (r = 0.273, P < 0.01), contribution of social organizations (r = 0.417, P < 0.001), rationale for access (r = 0.203, P < 0.01), community involvement (r = 0.560, P < 0.001) and interventions in watershed utilization (r = −0.249, P < 0.01). From the Logistical Regression two factors “institutions” and “rationale for access” had an increasing influence on watershed management while the other factors had a decreasing influence on watershed management. However, while the influence of institutions was increasing and significant, the influence of rationale for access to protected areas was increasing but not significant. Factors with negative influences included culture, social cohesion and social conflicts which had significant negative influence. The study also found that climate change had negative consequences on existing social institutions due to its ability to erode the powers of traditional institutions and to intensify resource conflicts. The study recommended the need for a local governance system to empower the key gatekeepers in the watershed management in order to promote the role of social institutions in the control of access to watershed resources.
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