Introduction: In 2016, China became the largest market for slim cigarettes in the world, selling 68.945 billion sticks. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of China’s 2015 tobacco taxation policy on slim cigarette consumption and the product’s market trends. Methods: Monthly data on the market share of slim cigarettes and their average price between January 2014 and June 2017 were used to show tobacco market trends and to estimate the impact of the 2015 tobacco tax increase on tobacco consumption. Segmented regression analysis was used to estimate the immediate effect of the 2015 tax policy and the time trends in consumption due to the policy change. Findings: After the tobacco tax increase was announced in May 2015, the market share of slim cigarettes initially decreased by 0.2117 (p = 0.067). However, by the third month after the policy change, consumption began to increase, and the market share of slim cigarettes was 1.6 times the normal increase over time. Slim cigarettes gained a 2.02% additional share by the second quarter of 2017 (from 2.58% to 4.60%), controlling for the price difference between slim cigarettes and regular cigarettes. The coefficient of the share and the price ratio (slim cigarettes/regular cigarettes) was ?0.7536 (p = 0.0044), suggesting that slim cigarettes are a substitute for regular cigarettes. Estimates also show that after the tax increase was implemented, consumption of slim cigarettes increased almost three times the normal consumption rate (0.0069 versus 0.0024). Conclusion: The slim cigarette industry in China has grown rapidly in recent years. The 2015 tax increase has had only minimal or short-term impact on reducing the growing popularity of slim cigarettes. Since slim cigarettes are a substitute for regular cigarettes, more empirical research is urgently needed to study the health impacts of slim cigarette use and the impact of tobacco control policies on slim cigarette consumption.
References
[1]
European Commission (2012) Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Approximation of the Laws, Regulations and Administrative Provisions of the Member States Concerning the Manufacture, Presentation and Sale of Tobacco and Related Products. European Commission, Brussels, Belgium.
[2]
Yan, J. (2015) Calm Thinking on the Blue Ocean of Slim Cigarettes Development (in Chinese). China Tobacco.
http://www.tobaccochina.com/revision/takematter/wu/20154/2015326133010_667776.shtml
[3]
Carpenter, C.M., Wayne, G.F. and Connolly, G.N. (2005) Designing Cigarettes for Women: New Findings from the Tobacco Industry Documents. Addiction, 100, 837-851. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1360-0443.2005.01072.x
[4]
Dewhirst, T., Lee, W.B., Fong, G.T. and Ling, P.M. (2016) Exporting an Inherently Harmful Product: The Marketing of Virginia Slims Cigarettes in the United States, Japan, and Korea. Journal of Business Ethics, 139, 161-181.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-015-2648-7
[5]
Slater, A. (2016) Cross-Sectional Relations between Slim Cigarettes and Smoking Prevalence. Beiträge zur Tabakforschung International/Contributions to Tobacco Research, 27, 75-99. https://doi.org/10.1515/cttr-2016-0010
[6]
Ford, A., Moodie, C., MacKintosh, A.M. and Hastings, G. (2014) Adolescent Perceptions of Cigarette Appearance. European Journal of Public Health, 24, 464-468.
https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckt161
[7]
Moodie, C., Ford, A., Mackintosh, A. and Purves, R. (2015) Are All Cigarettes Just the Same? Female’s Perceptions of Slim, Coloured, Aromatized and Capsule Cigarettes. Health Education Research, 30, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1093/her/cyu063
[8]
Hoek, J. and Robertson, C. (2015) How Do Young Adult Female Smokers Interpret Dissuasive Cigarette Sticks? Journal of Social Marketing, 1, 21-39.
[9]
Bansal-Travers, M., Hammond, D., Smith, P. and Cummings, K.M. (2011) The Impact of Cigarette Pack Design, Descriptors, and Warning Labels on Risk Perception in the U.S. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 40, 674-682.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2011.01.021
[10]
Carpenter, C.M., Wayne, G.F. and Connolly, G.N. (2007) The Role of Sensory Perception in the Development and Targeting of Tobacco Products. Addiction, 102, 136-147. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01649.x
[11]
Borland, R. and Savvas, S. (2013) Effects of Stick Design Features on Perceptions of Characteristics of Cigarettes. Tobacco Control, 22, 331-337.
https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2011-050199
[12]
Eriksen, M., Mackay, J., Schluger, N., Gomeshtapeh, F.I. and Drope, J. (2015) The Tobacco Atlas: Fifth Edtion. American Cancer Society Inc., Atlanta, GA.
[13]
(1974) Symposium on Slim Cigarettes Production (in Chinese). Tobacco Science and Technology, 1, 24.
[14]
Wang, B. (2015) Study on the Development Strategy of Domestic Slim Cigarettes. Modern Business Trade Industry, 2, 4-5.
[15]
Zuo, Y. (2015) Review of the Development of Slim Cigarettes in 2014 (in Chinese). China Tobacco, 5, 60-61.
[16]
Yang, H. (2018) Cultivate a New Outstanding Segment in Development of Chinese-Style Cigarettes (in Chinese). East Tobacco News.
[17]
China Cigarette Sales and Marketing Corporation (2017) Analysis of China’s Cigarettes Market in 2016 (in Chinese). China Tobacco, 5, 62-65.
[18]
Bai, Y., Cao, C. and Li, D. (2015) Brands Competition and Market Expansion of Slim Cigarettes in China (in Chinese). China Tobacco, 11, 38-40.
[19]
Westrock (2017) China Overtook Korea as the Largest Slim Cigarettes Market for the First Time Beijing: China Tobacco.
http://www.echinatobacco.com/html/site27/jycz/86055.html
[20]
Hu, T.W., Zhang, X. and Zheng, R. (2015) China Has Raised the Tax on Cigarettes: What’s Next? Tobacco Control, 25, 609-611.
https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2015-052534
[21]
China Cigarette Sales and Marketing Corporation (2016) Overview of China’s Cigarettes Market Development in 2015 (in Chinese). China Tobacco, 5, 65-69.
[22]
Zheng, R., Wang, Y. and Hu, X. (2016) Tobacco Tax: Theory, System Design, and Policy Practice (in Chinese). Financial Minds, 1, 5-30.
[23]
Hu, T.W., Sung, H.Y. and Keeler, T.E. (1995) Reducing Cigarette Consumption in California: Tobacco Taxes vs an Anti-Smoking Media Campaign. American Journal of Public Health, 85, 1218-1222. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.85.9.1218
[24]
Wang, W. (2017) Strategies to Cultivate Slim Cigarettes Brands: Product, Price, Place and Promotion (in Chinese). East Tobacco News.
[25]
Ling, C. (2018) Digest of Chengxing Ling’s Report at 2018 National Tobacco Conference (in Chinese). China Tobacco, 3, 15-20.
[26]
Yang, Y., Nan, Y., Tu, M., Wang, J., Wang, L. and Jiang, Y. (2016) Major Finding of 2015 China Adults Tobacco Survey (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Health Mangement, 10, 85-87.
[27]
Which High-End Slim Cigarettes Taste Best, and Why Smokers of Slim Cigarettes Get More and More? (2017) (in Chinese).
https://www.cnxiangyan.com/zhishi/2467.html
[28]
Siu, M., Mladjenovic, N. and Soo, E. (2013) The Analysis of Mainstream Smoke Emissions of Canadian ‘Super Slim’ Cigarettes. Tobacco Control, 22, e10.
https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050450
[29]
Ashley, M., Sisodiya, A., McEwan, M., McAughey, J. and Prasad, K. (2011) Comparison of Mouth Level Exposure to ‘Tar’ and Nicotine in Smokers of Normal and Superslim King Size Cigarettes in Romania. Beiträge zur Tabakforschung International/Contributions to Tobacco Research, 24, 277-288.
https://doi.org/10.2478/cttr-2013-0908
