多年冻土区公路病害模糊专家预测方法
Fuzzy expert prediction method for highway diseases in permafrost region

为了预测多年冻土区新建公路病害路段,辅助设计者在设计阶段进行合理设计,以模糊专家系统为基础提出了多年冻土区公路病害预测方法。以病害度为分析指标,以青藏公路某一路段作为研究对象,定性分析了道路病害的影响因子。根据实际病害数据,将青藏公路调查路段的病害度分为3级。结合青藏公路多年年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率等病害数据,建立了多年冻土区公路病害路段识别的模糊专家系统。运用MATLAB中的 Fuzzy Logic Toolbox工具,将各种影响因子作为输入变量,对10组多年冻土区等距路段进行了病害度计算,并运用SPSS软件对计算病害度与实际病害度进行对比分析。分析结果表明:随着年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率的增大,道路病害率上升; 计算病害度与实际病害度相关性达到0.751。可见,运用模糊专家系统对多年冻土区公路病害路段预测具有良好效果。
To predict the disease sections of newly-built highway in permafrost region and assist the decision-makers to carry on the reasonable design at design stage, a highway disease prediction method in permafrost region was proposed based on fuzzy expert system. The disease degree was used as analysis index, a road section of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway was selected as research object, and the influence factors of road disease were qualitative analyzed. The disease degrees of Qinghai-Tibet Highway were divided into 3 levels according to actual disease data. Combined with the years of disease data of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor of Qinghai-Tibet Highway, the fuzzy expert system for identifying disease sections in permafrost region was built. A variety of influence factors were used as input variables, and the disease degrees of the 10 equidistance road sections in permafrost region were calculated by using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB. The calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree were compared and analyzed by using SPSS software. Analysis result shows that the road disease degree increases with the increase of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor, the relevance between the calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree is 0.751, so, the application of fuzzy expert system in the prediction of highway diseases in permafrost region has a beneficial effect. 8 tabs, 19 figs, 27 refs