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- 2015
基于多模块贝叶斯网络的恐怖袭击威胁评估
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Abstract:
摘要 通过考察恐怖袭击事件可能造成的后果, 针对恐怖袭击事件评估信息的多样性、不确定性及模糊性, 提出用贝叶斯网络方法对恐怖袭击威胁进行评估, 从而为反恐决策者提供决策支持, 以减少恐怖袭击所造成的影响.针对恐怖袭击事件的复杂性, 提出多模块贝叶斯网络的恐怖袭击威胁评估模型, 并对多模块贝叶斯网络的结构学习、参数学习和推理进行研究, 提出多模块贝叶斯网络的推理算法.最后, 给出恐怖袭击威胁度的计算方法, 并对多模块贝叶斯网络的威胁评估模型进行实例分析.实例表明, 基于多模块贝叶斯网络的恐怖袭击威胁评估模型, 能有效评估恐怖袭击事件的威胁程度.
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