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- 2016
基于改进序列运算理论的有源配电网概率潮流计算
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Abstract:
针对有源配电网中分布式电源出力的不确定性和相关性对系统潮流的影响, 提出了一种基于改进序列运算理论的新型概率潮流算法．首先, 采用多变量非参数核密度估计方法构建了一种计及日输出功率时序特性的分布式电源出力概率模型; 其次, 为了将分布式电源出力概率模型序列化, 在多维序列理论的基础上, 提出了改进的相关性概率序列运算方法, 并与传统的线性化潮流计算方法相结合, 求得系统潮流的概率分布信息; 最后, 针对上述所提理论和方法, 采用改进的33节点配电系统进行仿真验证, 仿真结果表明, 所提方法具有较高的计算精度和较快的计算速度．
In terms of the uncertainty and correlation of distributed generation output in the active distribution network，a new method of probabilistic load flow(PLF) analysis was proposed based on improved sequence operation method. This method utilized the nonparametric kernel density estimation method to establish a probabilistic model of distributed generation daily output considering the timing characteristics. Then，based on the present multidimensional sequence operation theory，an improved dependent probabilistic sequence method was proposed and combined with the traditional linear power flow calculation to obtain the probability distribution information of system power flow. Finally，simulation was carried out on the improved 33-bus distribution system. The test results indicate that the proposed method can achieve higher computational accuracy and efficiency in the PLF calculation
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