沉默的大多数？ 媒介接触、社会网络与环境群体性事件研究
The Majority of Silence: The Study On Media Contact, Social Network and Environmental Protest

摘要 那些遭受环境伤害的群体会是沉默的大多数吗？基于2014年在西北四省县（区）对农村居民的调查数据显示，农村居民在经历环境危害后，有65.25%的人会进行各类的环境抗争行为，只有34.75%的人选择沉默。通过二分类逻辑斯蒂（Logistic)回归分析发现，媒介接触在农村居民的环境抗争中起了显著的促进作用，具体表现为传统媒介的“接触强度”和新媒介的“信任度”对农村居民的环境抗争的促进作用较为敏感。而以往在城市居民环境抗争中有着积极影响的社会网络在农村居民的环境抗争中则没有发挥显著的作用。随着乡村媒介技术的发展和普及，不同媒介的接触及其信任度是造成环境抗争或沉默行为选择差异的一个重要原因。
Will those suffering from environmental damage be the majority of silence? Based on the analysis of survey data of rural residents in four provinces and counties of northwest China in 2014, the study found that after rural residents experienced environmental damage, 65.25% of them chose to conduct different types of environmental protest behaviors and 34.75% of rural residents kept silence. Through applying the binary logistical regression, the results indicate that media contacts play an significant role in environmental protest behaviors while the social network is no long significantly related to environmental protest. That is to say, rural residents with higher intensity of traditional media contacts, greater likelihood of environmental protest and higher degree of new media trust are more likely to conduct environmental protest. Social network did not significantly influence environmental protest, though it has been tested as a significant factor in urban environmental protest. It can be concluded that with the development of media technology and its dissemination, the option of choosing either environmental protests or silence can be contributed to the different types of media contacts and their trustworthiness