奥尔波特和波斯特曼谣言传播公式的改进及其验证: 基于东北虎致游客伤亡事件的新浪微博谣言分析
Allport and Postman Posed Rumor Propagation Formula Improvement and Its Verification: Rumor Analysis of Sina Micro-blog Based on the Tourist Casualties Caused by Northeast Tiger

摘要 新媒体时代的谣言传播较以往发生了很大变化，奥尔波特和波斯特曼提出的谣言传播公式“谣言的流通量=事件的重要性×事件的模糊性”（Rumor= Importance× Ambiguous）及后续研究者对该公式的发展需随时代进一步调整。论文结合当下媒介环境的变化，在既往研究的基础上，提出新的谣言传播公式：谣言的流通量=事件的重要性×事件的模糊性×传播者影响力/公众批判能力（Rumor=Importance× Ambiguous× Transmitter Influence/ Critical），并以新媒体时代的典型应用——微博为例，选取2016年7月东北虎致游客伤亡事件的新浪微博谣言文本进行实证分析，验证该谣言传播公式成立。
In the new media era ,the spread of rumors has changed a lot. Gordon W Allport and Leo Postman have developed the rumor propagation formula:Rumor=Importance×Ambiguous and subsequent researchers should further adjust the development of the formula with the times. Combined with the change of media environment and on the basis of previous studies, this paper puts forward a new rumor propagation formula:Rumor=Importance×Ambiguous×Transmitter Influence/Critical. The paper takes the new media era ——micro-blog as an example to make an empirical analysis of the text of the Sina micro-blog rumors about the incident of the northeast tiger tourist casualties in July 2016,and verifies the rumor propagation formula