欠发达地区农民工留城倾向的影响因素分析
Long-term Tendency of Rural Migrant Workers in Developing Regions to Stay in Working City

新型城镇化的核心在于实现人的城镇化,能否增强农民工留在打工城市的意愿和能力是实现农民工市民化的关键途径之一。根据贵阳市农民工的调研数据,运用有序probit模型,实证研究了个人综合特征、家庭特征和个人满意度对农民工留在打工城市的影响。分析结果表明:家庭所在地与打工地距离越近,受教育程度较高、在城市居住时间较长,全家迁移,住房条件越好,已婚,对收入水平越满意、对工作环境越满意的农民工,越倾向于长期留在打工城市。且第一代农民工和新生代农民工的留城倾向受到不同因素的影响,表现出较强的代际差异性。
The new urbanization project's core lies in the realization of human urbanization, and to enhance the migrant workers' willingness and ability to stay in the city will be one of the key ways to achieve this goal. Based on the survey data of migrant workers in Guiyang, using the ordered probit model, we carry out a empirical study on the comprehensive influence of individual characteristics, family characteristics and personal satisfaction on migrant workers' tendency to stay in the working city. The results show that: if migrant workers have a closer distance between their family and working places, they are better educated, they have a longer living time in the city, they have the hole family together with them and better housing conditions, they get married, they have a satisfied income level and working environment, they have more intention to stay in the city for a long time. Also, the tendency of the first generation of migrant workers to stay in the city and that of the new generation is affected by different factors, showing a strong intergenerational differences.