高校社会安全类突发事件情景演化的系统动力学研究
System dynamics research on scenario evolution of social security incidents in universities and colleges

社会安全类突发事件具有较强的不可预测性、动态性和信息不完全性，由传统"预测—应对"向"情景—应对"范式转化已成为这类问题应急管理研究的趋势，其基础与关键在于研究情景演化的机理与过程。为此，文章运用多维数组对高校社会安全类突发事件进行结构化描述，分析情景演化的驱动要素、内在机理及外显方式，并以高校某社会安全类突发事件为例，运用系统动力学仿真技术与方法构建情景演化模型，对多情景下社会安全类突发事件发展演化的状态展开深入研究。研究表明：高校社会安全类突发事件具有较强的情景依赖性，突发事件的情景主体间、情景要素间、情景链各元素之间存在的强关联形成不同的情景演化基本态势，提出了高校应对社会安全类突发事件的合理化建议，为构建突发事件应急准备体系提供了理论支持。
With strong unpredictability,social security incidents have been ineffectively managed by conventional prediction methods. The "scenario-response" model has become an effective method of emergency management dealing with social security incidents in universities and colleges. Therefore,it is of importance to study the mechanism and process of scenario evolution. In this paper,the authors conducted structural description on emergencies' framework based on multidimensional arrays,analyzed the dynamic factors,internal mechanism and explicit mode of the scenario evolution,and then carried out research on the status and result of scenario evolution and development of the social security incidents in universities and colleges under multi-scenes with the example of a certain group conflict. The research showed that:social security incidents in colleges and universities are strongly situation-dependent. The strong correlations between various scenario subjects,scenario elements and scenario chains of different incidents form different scenario evolution. The paper put forward rational proposal for universities and colleges to respond to social security incidents,and provided theoretical support for the construction of emergency preparedness system for incidents.