经济增长中的劳动结构效应* ——一个分产业测算模型及其应用
LABOR STRUCTURE EFFECT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SUBINDUSTRIES CALCULATION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

摘要 本文在钱纳里等人（Chenery et al）［1］的模型基础上，发展出一个分产业测算模型。通过研究发现：1979—2012年间，全国劳动结构效应达1711 5个百分点，其中，第一产业、第二产业间劳动结构效应较大，但主要归功于东部，而中、西部地区第一产业、第二产业间劳动结构效应尚未得到充分发挥；同时，无论是东部，还是中、西部地区，第一产业、第三产业间劳动结构效应都较小。原因之一为第三产业发展滞后；原因之二为第三产业劳动生产率过低。
Abstract： The existing research has not considered deeply the industrial structure, just generally calculated the labor structure effect. Taking into account Chinas characteristics of industry and regional development, this paper develops a subindustries calculation model based on Chenery et al. This paper concludes that labor structure effect was 1711 5 percentage points during 1979—2012, which has made a positive contribution to labor productivity and economic growth.The labor structure effect between primary and secondary industry is large, which mainly due to the East region. At the same time, the labor structure effect between primary and tertiary industry is small, because there is tertiary industry lags behind, and labor productivity in tertiary industry is too low. A lot of untrained agricultural surplus labor is absorbed by the tertiary industry caused its low labor productivity.In order to fully explore the labor structure effect from agriculture to nonagricultural industry, governments at all levels should vigorously develop the tertiary industry, strengthen the vocational skills training of agricultural labor. Governments of the central and western regions should also actively undertake industrial transfer.