阻碍中国经济加速增长之源： 1960—2012年*
THE SOURCES WHICH HINDER CHINA S ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCELERATION: FROM 1960 TO 2012

摘要 当一个国家跨入中等收入阶段后，如果不能实现经济的加速增长，将无法实现向高收入阶段的跨越，其结果会落入中等收入陷阱之中。本文通过构建用于计算中国经济增长减缓和增长加速的时间点约束条件，通过对中国1960—2012年数据进行筛选，找出中国经济增长的增长减缓点和增长加速点，并且借助于Probit模型，从结构性因素、社会与环境因素、官员腐败因素三个方面实证考察阻碍中国经济加速增长之源。最后提出本文的研究结论和政策建议。
Abstract： If the country which has reached middleincome stage cannot achieve highincome stage through growth acceleration，it will fall into the middleincome trap.Based on three constrained conditions for economic growth slowdown and growth acceleration，we calculate Chinese data from 1960 to 2012 and find the timing points when the economy growth slows down and accelerates Then we use the Probit model to empirically study the sources which hinder China s economic growth acceleration from three aspects, which are structural factors, social and environmental factors and official corruption factors.In the last part, this paper puts forward the main results and related policy suggestions.