经济结构、政府债务与地方政府债券发行成本*——来自1 589只地方政府债券的证据
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT DEBT AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT BOND COST——Evidence from 1 589 Local Government Bonds

摘要 方政府债券自2015年起进入常态化、大规模发行阶段，其发行定价亟待研究。本文构建了地方经济结构、政府债务风险状况与地方政府债券发行成本的作用机制，运用地方政府债券发行数据，对其发行利率和同期国债的利差，与发行人经济结构、政府债务率、债券特征及市场资金供给等变量进行了实证研究。定量分析表明，地方的固定资产投资率、政府债务率与地方政府债券发行利差显著正相关，但因为区域经济异质性，西部地区固定资产投资率、东北地区的地方债务率与地方政府债券发行利差呈显著负相关；定向承销的发行方式显著增大了发行利差，但Shibor与发行利差无显著关系。据此建议加快区域协调发展，提高地方政府债券流动性，适度增大地方政府债券发行量。
Abstract： China local government bonds enter to the normal, largescale release stage from 2015, the pricing of LGBs need to be studied. This paper constructs the local economic structure, mechanism of government debt risk profile and local government bond issuance rates. By using the data of local government bonds of the 34 provincial municipalities, the empirical research focuses on the local government bond interest rates spread over the treasury, with economic structure of the issuer, the government debt ratio, and the bond market capital supply and other features. Quantitative analysis show that the relation of local government bond rates spread, with the investment ratio, local government debt rate is positive significantly. However, as the regional economic heterogeneity, the relation among local government bonds issue spreads with the invest ratio within western region, and the debt ratio within northeastern region, is significant negative. Issue of oriented underwriting increase the local government bond spreads significantly, but the relationship between spreads and Shibor is no significant. Accordingly, we propose policy advice of reduce the cost of local government bonds, is to accelerate regional development, increase local government bond liquidity, and bond volume.