人民币外部实际汇率的产业结构效应*
THE INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE EFFECT OF RENMINBI EXTERNAL REAL EXCHANGE RATE

摘要 本文对人民币外部实际汇率的产业结构效应进行了理论和实证分析。理论分析表明，外部实际汇率贬值通过成本效应、支出转移效应直接提升净出口，出口部门需求上升通过产业分工效应、收入效应和城镇化效应间接带动其他部门、其他产业的产出。实证检验显示，外部实际汇率贬值总体上有利于提升工业产出，但外需变化对工业产出的影响要比外部实际汇率显著；外部实际汇率可提升服务业产出但有明显时滞。
Abstract： The industrial structure effects of Renminbi external real exchange rate are researched in this paperTheoretical analysis shows that external real exchange rate depreciation may enhance net export by both cost effect and expenditure switching effect，and therefore the production of other sector by industrial division effect，income effect，and urbanization effectEmpirical results support that external real exchange rate depreciation may have a positive effect on manufacturing production as a wholeBut such an effect is less significant than that of foreign demandExternal real exchange rate depreciation may have a positive but lagged effect on service production