人口老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响
A Study of the Influence of Population Ageing on Labor Force Participation Rate

摘要 劳动力参与率的高低对劳动供给和经济增长有重要影响。随着老龄社会的到来,老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响越来越重要。人口老龄化在解释劳动力参与率差异方面起到重要作用。通过对中国、巴西、法国、印度、日本和美国的2013年劳动力参与率比较,利用年龄标准化方法,发现在年龄别劳动力参与率一定的情况下,年轻型人口明显比老年型人口的劳动力参与率更高。利用差异分解的方法,发现中国和日本2013年的劳动力参与率相差12.1个百分点,其中79.0%可以归因于年龄结构的差异。更进一步,通过国内面板模型和国际面板模型的实证分析,证明了人口老龄化与劳动力参与率存在显著的负相关关系。实证结果还表明,收入水平与劳动力参与率之间存在着倒U型曲线关系。
Abstract： Labor force participation level is important for labor supply and economic growth．Since changing age structure influences the overall labor force participation rate ( LFPR ) ，population ageing plays an important role in explaining differences in LFPR．By comparing age-standardized LFPR among China，Brazil，France，India，Japan and The U. S．，it is found that LFPR level of a young population is considerably higher than that of an older population under the same age-specific LFPR．Using the decomposition method of differences between rates，it is found that in 2013，the LFPR difference between China and Japan is at 12． 1 percentage points，of which 79． 0% is contributed by their age structure difference．Further empirical analysis through both national and international panel data models also indicate that LFPR is significantly negative related to population ageing．