中国真的已陷入生育危机了吗?
Has China Really Fallen into Fertility Crisis?

摘要 目前，媒体和社会舆论普遍认为，中国已出现了严重的生育危机，应全面放开生育政策，甚至鼓励生育。然而，实际情况是否果真如此，还有待全面、系统的深入分析。文章把中国放到一个更长的历史时间内、更大的空间视野中，尝试对该问题进行学理分析与思辨。借助有关生育的直接和间接影响因素理论，利用纵向和横向数据，文章系统比较了近半个世纪中日韩美的婚育行为，并对中国的经济、社会和文化环境与生育的关系进行理论解析。结果表明: ( 1) 中国人依旧普婚普育、且相对而言早婚早育; ( 2) 时下的宏观环境依旧在强化人们的婚育情结、催生婚育焦虑，从而驱动人们早早步入婚育生活。据此，笔者认为，判断中国已面临严峻的生育危机还为时尚早。文章分析结果或有助于推动对国人婚育行为更为广泛的学术争鸣，拓展对该问题的客观认知和更近实际的理解。
Abstract：It has been widely hold that China has encountered demographic crises，and abolishing fertility policy or a policy encouraging childbearing should be adopted． However，has China really fallen into fertility crisis? This paper attempts to provide preliminary thoughts on this issue by situating China in longer temporal and broader spatial contexts． Drawing on the conceptual framework of proximate and distal determinants of fertility，it compares marriage and fertility patterns among the Chinese，Korean，Japanese and American，and assesses the intertwined relationship between marriage and fertility，as well as economic structure，social environment and cultural regulations． Results indicate that China is still characterized by universal and early marriage and childbearing，and distal factors have created the sense of anxiety of marriage and fertility，driving individuals to proceed to childbearing in a faster pace． It remains too early to conclude that China has encountered fertility crisis．