丹江口市农村房屋震害预测研究
Research on Seismic Damage Prediction of Rural Residential in Danjiangkou City

通过资料收集和现场调查，得到丹江口市农村房屋建筑基本资料的统计数据。在此基础上，运用建筑物地震易损性的概率分析法，对该市农村房屋建筑进行震害预测。预测结果表明，丹江口市农村房屋建筑基本能到达Ⅵ度的抗震设防要求，但当遭遇到烈度为Ⅶ度的地震作用时，发生毁灭性破坏的可能性极小，可能会大范围发生中等破坏，并导致较大的经济损失和人员伤亡。通过抗震措施经济分析认为，增加约6%的建房投资，即可实现三水准的抗震设防目标，并提出一些具体的民居防震减灾政府规划管理建议和技术措施。
Statistical data of the basic data about Danjiangkou city's houses are obtained through documents collection and field investigation. On the basis of the data, we used probability analysis method of seismic vulnerability to make prediction of earthquake damage to buildings in Danjiangkou city. Prediction results show that Danjiangkou city has already reached basic requirements of seismic fortification VI degree, which means that the probability of a catastrophic failure is very small while suffers a VII degree earthquake, but moderate damage will likely occur widely, and lead to greater economic losses and casualties. The economic analysis of anti-seismic measures indicates that Danjiangkou city could achieve three levels of anti-seismic fortification target if about 6% of building investment was increased. Meanwhile, this paper puts forward some anti-seismic measures and advices for the government planning and management of earthquake prevention and disaster relief.