世界田径锦标赛标枪成绩发展态势分析及灰色预测
Development of Javelin Achievement and Gray Prediction in IAAF World Championships in Athletics

摘要：为进一步了解世界标枪项目的发展水平及发展趋势，促进我国标枪项目的进一步突破，将以田径运动世界大赛之一的田径锦标赛为例，采用文献资料法、数理统计法、灰色预测分析法、逻辑法分析法等，对世界田径锦标赛标枪成绩发展态势进行分析，运用灰色预测模型对第16届世界田径锦标赛男、女标枪第1名运动员成绩进行预测。通过分析结果研究得出：1）世界田径锦标赛男女标枪整体发展趋势具有一致性，都呈上升趋势，但上升幅度都不大；2）世界田径锦标赛男女标枪运动员的成绩变化规律不同，其中，男子标枪运动员的成绩起伏较大并且届内竞争激烈，即组间差异大、组内差异小，这在一定程度上有利于运动员在世锦赛上取得更优异的成绩；而女子则与之相反；3）我国男女标枪成绩在近些年有所提高，特别是女子标枪取得一定成绩，但仍然面临很大的挑战；4）第16届世界田径锦标赛标枪成绩第1名的预测值男子为91.59 m、女子为68.57 m。
Abstract: In order to further understand the development level and development trend of the world javelin project and promote the further breakthrough of China's javelin project, this paper analyzed the development trend of javelin achievement in IAAF World Championships in Athletics by means of literature review, mathematical statistics and comparative analysis, and forecasted the results of the men and women champions in the 16th IAAF World Championships in Athletics by gray prediction model. The results show that: 1) The overall development trend of men’s javelin and women’s javelin in the Championships is consistent and on the rise, but the rise is not large; 2) the change of javelin achievement in the World Championships is different in male and female javelin throwers; the results of male javelin throwers fluctuate greatly, and the competition is intense, that is, the difference is big between groups and is small within the group; female javelin throwers’ are the opposite; 3) China’s javelin achievement has improved in recent years in our country, especially in women’s javelin, and still face big challenges; 4) the prediction result of the male champion of 16th IAAF World Championships in Athletics is 91.59 m, and that of female champion is 68.57 m