近40年天山北坡经济带热量资源时空变化特征研究
Research on spatial-temporal variation of heat resources in Economic Zone of Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountain for recent 40 years

利用天山北坡经济带11个气象台站1971—2010年年平均气温、霜期、≥10℃积温的资料，使用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、t-检验和IDW插值对天山北坡经济带的热量资源的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明：近40年天山北坡经济带的年平均气温、霜期和≥10℃积温分别以0.4 ℃·10a-1、3.2 d·10a-1及87.2 ℃·d·10a-1的倾向率上升，并均在20世纪90年代发生了突变，突变年后比突变年前年平均气温增加了1.1℃，霜期增加了8 d，≥10℃积温增加了239.4 ℃·d-1，而且随着年代的增加，年平均气温、霜期和≥10℃积温的增加趋势更加显著。空间上天山北坡经济带的热量资源具有显著的区域差异，年平均气温、霜期和≥10℃积温均呈现西北部高东部低的分布格局，并随着时间的变化年平均气温、霜期和≥10℃积温的高值区已由原来的乌苏市、克拉玛依市向西扩展到精河以西广大地区，低值区范围缩小至玛纳斯县、呼图壁县周围一带。中东部地区的昌吉市、米泉市、阜康市等县市的热量资源的增加速率均高于中西部地区，其中昌吉地区热量资源增加最为显著。
Based on the data of average annual temperature, frost-free period and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature during 1971—2010 from 11 meteorological stations in Economic Zone of Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountain, using the linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test, T-test and IDW interpolation, the spatial-temporal change characteristics of heat resources were analyzed. The results showed that: In recent 40 years, the annual average temperature, frost-free period and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature were increased by the tendency rate of 0.4 ℃·10a-1, 3.2 d·10a-1 and 87.2 ℃·d·10a-1 respectively. Also these elements had occurred the mutation in 1990s, the annual average temperature was increased by 1.1℃, frost-free period was increased by 8 d, and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature was increased by 239.4 ℃·d compared after and before mutation. Furthermore, with the era increasing, the increasing tendency of annual average temperature, frost-free period and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature were more notable. In space the heat resources in Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountain had significant regional difference and showed the distribution pattern as higher in northwestern and lower in eastern. And with the time change, the high value regions of the annual average temperature, frost-free period and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature have been expanded to west from the original Wusu and Kelamayi to the wide scope of west Jinghe, the low value regions were narrowed down to the Manas and Hutubi. At the same time, the increasing rate of heat resources in mid-east region, such as Changji, Miquan and Fukang were total higher than the middle and western regions, among them the heat resources increase in Changji City was the most significant.