Prediction of Smear Positive TB Cases at Different Types of Designated Microscopy Centres, Karnataka, India

Background: Under the Revised National Tuberculosis control Programme (RNTCP) in India, the designated microscopy centres (DMCs) form the basic unit of smear positive TB case detection in a district. There is a need by the programme managers to estimate the mean and range of smear positive tuberculosis (TB) cases that can be detected at DMCs located in different type of health facilities to channelize their resources. Methods: It is a cross-sectional study conducted in the state of Karnataka, India during January 2014 to December 2014 based on the compiled reports from past five years received from all the 30 districts of the state. The prediction was made based on the performance of these DMCs in the last five years using a modeling technique. Results: The proportions of the DMCs located at health facilities are Primary Health Institutions/Centres (PHIs)—73%, Tuberculosis Units (TUs)—15%, Medical colleges (MC)—7%, District TB centres (DTC)—3% and Private Practitioners (PP)—2%. The maximum number of cases that can be detected at DTC is 3621 (SD 54), TU is 9224 (SD 90), PHI is 20,412 (SD 135), PP is 859 (SD 26) and MC is 8322 (SD 84). Conclusion: The predicted values will essentially serve as a tool for the programme managers of Karnataka to plan, strategize and monitor the performance of DMCs in the state.