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电子学报  2013 

基于漏洞严重程度分类的漏洞预测模型

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0372-2112.2013.09.018, PP. 1784-1787

Keywords: 漏洞预测模型,马尔科夫链,漏洞严重程度,分类预测

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Abstract:

软件漏洞预测模型有许多种,能预测软件中存在的漏洞总数以及发生的时间间隔,但不能预测软件漏洞的严重程度.然而在某些场合,如软件可信性,我们不仅要考虑软件漏洞发生的总数和时间间隔,而且也要考虑漏洞发生的严重程度对软件可信性的影响.既是在传统的软件安全性研究中,考虑漏洞发生的严重程度的影响,对软件的使用和风险控制也是很重要的.本文基于传统的马尔可夫模型,将软件漏洞按发生的严重程度进行分类,获得了一种新的软件漏洞预测数学模型.利用该模型不仅能够预测软件中存在的漏洞总数和时间间隔,而且同时也能预测每一类的漏洞总数和漏洞种类,试验表明有较好的准确度,这是其它漏洞预测模型所无法预测的.

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