Rasmusson, E. M. , and T. H. Carpenter, Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niio, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 1982, 110, 354～384.
[2]
Deser, C. , and J. M. Wallace, Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the tropical Pacific, J. Climate, 1990, 3, 1254～1281.
[3]
Philander, S. G. H. , El Niio Southern Oscillation phenomena, Nature, 1983, 302, 295～301.
[4]
Philander, S. G. H. , El Niio, La Niia, and the Southern Oscillation, Academic Press, 1990, 289pp.
[5]
McCreary, J. P. , and D. L. T. Anderson, An overview of coupled ocean-atmosphere models of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res., 1991, 96, 3125～3150.
[6]
巢纪平,厄尔尼诺和南方涛动动力学,北京:气象出版社,1993,309pp.
[7]
Neelin, J. D. et al. , ENSO theory, J. Geophys. Res. , 1998, 103, 14262～14290.
[8]
Bjerkness, J. , Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 1969, 97, 163～172.
[9]
Philander, S. G. H. , T. Yamagata, and R. C. Pacannowski, Unstable air-sea interactions in the tropics, J.Atmos. Sci. , 1984, 41, 604～613.
[10]
Yamagata, T. , Stability of a simple air-sea coupled model in the tropics, In: Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Models, Ed. J. C. J. Nihoul, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1985, 767pp.
[11]
Hirst, A. C. , Unstable and damped equatorial modes in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models, J. Atmos.Sci. , 1986, 43, 606～630.
[12]
Chao Jiping, and Zhang Renhe, The air-sea interaction waves in the tropics and their instabilities, Acta Meteor.Sinica, 1988, 2, 275～287.
Schopf, P. S. , and M. J. Suarez, Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Atmos, Sci. , 1988, 45,549～566.
[19]
Chao, Y. , and S. G. H, Philander, On the structure of the Southern Oscillation and evolution of coupled oceanatmosphere models, TOGA Notes, 1991, No. 3, 1～8.
[20]
Anderson, D. L. T. , and J. P. McCreary, Slowly propagating disturbance in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Atmos. Sci. , 1985, 42, 615～629.
[21]
Hirst, A. C. , Slow instabilities in tropical ocean basin-global atmosphere models, J. Atmos. Sci. , 1989, 45,830～852.
[22]
Yamagata, T. , and Y. Masumoto, A simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model for the origin of a warm El Nino/Southern Oscillation event, Phil. Trans. Soc. , London, Ser. A, 1989, 329, 225～236.
[23]
Masumoto, Y. , and T. Yamagata, The birth and evolution of an eastward propagating air-sea coupled disturbance in an aqua-planet, Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , 1990, 44, 1～9.
[24]
Masumoto, Y. , and T. Yamagata, On the origin of a model warm ENSO in the western Pacific, J. Meteor.Soc. Japan, 1991, 69, 197～207.
[25]
Zhang Renhe, and Chao Jiping, Mechanisms of interannual variations in a simple air-sea coupled model in the Tropics, In: Climate Variability (Eds. Ye Duzheng et al. ), China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 1993, 236～244.
Huang Ronghui,Zang Xiaoyun,Zhang Renhe et al.,The westerly anomalies overthe tropical Pacific and their dynamical effect on the ENSO cycles during 1980-1994,Adv.Atmos.Sci.,1998,15,135～151.
Zhou Guangqing,Zeng Qingcun,and Zhang Ronghua,Animproved coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model and its numerical simulation,Progress in Natural Sciences,1999,9,374～381.
Chao Jiping,YuanShaoyu,Chao Qingchen et al.,A data analysis study onthe evolution ofthe El Nino/La Ninacycle,Adv.Atmos.Sci.,2002,19,837～844.
[38]
McCreary, J. , Eastern tropical ocean response to changing wind systems: with application to El Nino, J. Phys.Oceanogr. , 1976, 6, 632～645.
[39]
Zhang Renhe, Zhao Gang, and Tan Yanke, Meridional wind stress anomalies over tropical Pacific and the onset of El Nino. Part Ⅰ: Data Analysis, Adv. Atmos. Sci. , 2001, 18, 467～480.
[40]
Zhang Renhe, and Zhao Gang, Meridional wind stress anomalies over tropical pacific and the onset of El Nino.Part Ⅱ: Dynamical Analysis, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2001, 18, 1053～1065.
[41]
Wyrtki, K. , El Nino-the dynamic response of the Pacific Ocean to atmosphere forcing, J. Phys. Oceanogr.,1975, 5, 570～584.
[42]
Balmaseda, M. A. , M. K. Davey, and D. L. T. Anderson, Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill, J. Climate, 1995, 8, 2705～2715.
[43]
Kirtman, B. P. , and P. S. Schopf, Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction, J. Climate, 1997,11, 2804～2822.
[44]
Balmaseda, M. A. , D. L. T. Anderson, and M. K. Davey, Seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill, Ocean Modeling, 1994, 104, 1～6.
[45]
李崇银,频繁的强东亚大槽活动与El Nino的发生,中国科学(B辑),1988,667～674.
[46]
Li Chongyin,Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino events,Adv.Atmos.Sci.,1990,7,36～46.
Cane, M.A. , S.E. Zebiak, and S.C. Dolan, Experimental forecasts of El Nino, Nature, 1986, 321, 827～832.
[52]
Latif, M. , M. Fl gel, An investigation of short-range climate predictability in the tropical Pacific, J. Geophys.Res. , 1991, 96, 2661～2673
[53]
Barnett, T. P. , M. Latif, N. Graham et al. , ENSO and ENSO related predictability. Part Ⅰ: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Climate, 1992, 6,1545～1566.
[54]
Barnston, A. G. , and C. F. Ropelewski, Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis, J.Climate, 1992, 5, 1316～1345.
[55]
Ji, M. , A. Kumar, and A. Leetmaa, A multi-season climate forecast system at the National Meteorological Center, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 1994, 75, 569～577.
[56]
Chen, D. , S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi et al. , An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting, Science,1995, 269, 1699～1702.
[57]
Ji, M. , A. Leetmaa, and V. E. Kousky, Coupled model predictions of ENSO during the 1980s and the 1990s at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, J. Climate, 1996, 9, 3105～3120.
[58]
Behringer, D. W. , M. Ji, and A. Leetmaa, An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization Part Ⅱ: The coupled model, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 1998, 126, 1022～1034.
[59]
Schneider, E. K. , B. Huang, Z. Zhu et al. , Ocean data Assimilation, Initialization, and Predictions of ENSO with a Coupled GCM, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 1999, 127, 1187～1207.
[60]
Wang, G. , R. Kleeman, N. Smith et al. , The BMRC coupled general circulation model ENSO forecast system,Mon. Wea. Rev. , 2002, 130, 975～991.
[61]
Xu, J. -S. , and H. yon Storch, Principal oscillation pattern: Prediction of the state of ENSO, J. Climate, 1990,3, 1316～1329.
[62]
Penland, C. , and T. Magorian, Prediction of Nino 3 sea surface temperature using linear inverse modeling, J.Climate, 1993, 6, 1067～1076.
[63]
Derr, V. E. , and R. J. Slutz, Prediction of El Ni~o Events in the Pacific by Means of Neural Networks, AIApplications, 1994, 8, 51～63.
[64]
Xue, Y. , M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis: Part Ⅰ: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 1996, 125, 2043～2056.
[65]
Kim, K.-Y. , and G. R. North, EOF-based linear prediction algorithm: Examples, J. Climate, 1999, 12, 2076～2092.
[66]
Xue, Y. , A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, ENSO prediction with Markov models: the impact of sea level, J. Climate,2000, 13, 849～871.
[67]
Mo, R. , and D. M. Straus, Statistical dynamical seasonal prediction based on principal component regression of GCM Ensemble Integrations, Mon. Wea. Rev. , 2002, 130, 2167～2187.
[68]
Song Jiaxi, and Wang Zhanggui, A new advance in El Nino prediction-The next El Nino will occur in 1997-1998, ChineseSci. Bulletin, 1998, 43 (6), 504～505.
