全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
电网技术  2006 

短期负荷预测最大Lyapunov指数预报模式预测值的判定

, PP. 20-24

Keywords: 短期负荷预测,最大Lyapunov指数预报模式,混沌吸引子,预测值判定

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

首先分析了相空间中混沌吸引子邻近轨道间的平行、交叉、折叠3种拓扑关系,根据负荷吸引子的特点提出了负荷时序最大Lyapunov指数预报模式预测值的判定依据,并探讨了相空间中临近点(轨道)的选择方法。仿真试验表明改进的负荷预测建模策略避免了原有Lyapunov指数预报模式预测值选择的盲目性,吸引子临近点的选择符合电力负荷数据的特点,所建立的短期负荷预测模型提高了预测精度并达到了预期效果。

References

[1]  邹政达,孙雅明,张智晟.基于蚁群优化算法递归神经网络的短期负荷预测[J].电网技术,2005,29(3):59-63.
[2]  Zou Zhengda,Sun Yaming,Zhang Zhisheng.Short-term load forecasting based on recurrent neural network using ant colony optimization algorithm[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(3):59-63(in Chinese).
[3]  谢宏,程浩忠,张国立,等.基于粗糙集理论和动态时序模型的日负荷曲线预测新方法[J].电网技术,2004,28(14):10-14.
[4]  Xie Hong,Cheng Haozhong,Zhang Guoli,et al.A new method to forecast daily load curve based on rough set theory and dynamic time series model[J].Power System Technology,2004,28(14):10-14(in Chinese).
[5]  李元诚,方廷健,于尔铿.短期负荷预测的支持向量机方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(6):55-59.
[6]  Li Yuancheng,Fang Tingjian,Yu Erkeng.Study of support vector machines for short-term load forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2003,23(6):55-59(in Chinese).
[7]  Yang Zhengling,Lin Kongyuan.Discussion on causes of chaos in load records of power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2002,26(5):18-23(in Chinese).
[8]  Mori H,Urano S.Short term load forecasting with chaos time series analysis[C].IEEE Proceeding of International Conference on Intelligent System Application to Power System,Orlando,FL,USA,1996.
[9]  梁志珊,王丽敏,付大鹏,等.基于Lyapunov指数的电力系统短期负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,1998,18(5):368-371.
[10]  Liang Zhishan,Wang Limin,Fu Dapeng,et al.Electric power system short-term load forecasting using Lyapunov exponents technique [J].Proceedings of the CSEE,1998,18(5):368-371(in Chinese).
[11]  李天云,刘自发.电力系统负荷的混沌特性及预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(11):36-40.
[12]  Li Tianyun,Liu Zifa.The chaotic property of power load and its forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2000,20(11):36-40(in Chinese).
[13]  蒋传文,袁智强,侯志俭,等.高嵌入维混沌负荷序列预测方法研究[J].电网技术,2004,28(3):25-28.
[14]  Jiang Chuanwen,Yuan Zhiqiang,Hou Zhijian,et al.Research of forecasting method on chaotic load series with high embedded dimension[J].Power System Technology,2004,28(3):25-28(in Chinese).
[15]  张步涵,刘小华,万建平,等.基于混沌时间序列的负荷预测及其关键问题分析[J].电网技术,2004,28 (13):32-35.
[16]  Zhang Buhan,Liu Xiaohua,Wan Jianping,et al.Load forecasting based on chaotic time series and analysis of its key factors[J].Power System Technology,2004,(28)13:32-35(in Chinese).
[17]  林振山,南方.Lyapunov指数预报模式[J].应用气象学报,1993,4(4):453-457.
[18]  Lin Zhenshan,Nan Fang.Lyapunov exponent model for forecast [J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1993,4(4):453-457 (in Chinese).
[19]  杨正瓴,田勇,张广涛,等.短期负荷预测最大李亚普诺夫指数法的改进[J].电网技术,2005,29 (7):31-35.
[20]  Yang Zhengling,Tian Yong,Zhang Guangtao,et al.Improvement of maximal Lyapunov exponent method to short term load forecasting [J].Power System Technology,2005,(29)7:31-35(in Chinese).
[21]  冯丽,邱家驹.基于电力负荷模式分类的短期电力负荷预测[J].电网技术,2005,29(4):23-26.
[22]  Feng Li,Qiu Jiaju.Electrical load forecasting based on load patterns[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(4):23-26(in Chinese).
[23]  Rahman S,Bhatnagar R.An expert system based algorithm for short term load forecast[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1998,3(2):392-399.
[24]  谢开贵,李春燕,周家启.基于神经网络的负荷组合预测模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(7):85-89.
[25]  Xie Kaigui,Li Chunyan,Zhou Jiaqi.Research of the combination forecasting model for load based on artificial neural network [J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2002,22(7):85-89(in Chinese).
[26]  Arango H G,Souza de A C Z,Lambert T G,et al.Difference between regular and deterministic chaos processes based on time analysis of load:an example using CEMIG data[J].Electric Power Systems Research,2000,56(1):35-41.
[27]  杨正瓴,林孔元.电力系统负荷记录混沌特性成因的探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(5):18-23.
[28]  Lorenz E N.Deterministic non-periodic flow[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1963,20(2):130-141.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133