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电网技术  2014 

热带气旋引发电网群发性故障的动态事故集生成方法

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.06.026, PP. 1593-1599

Keywords: 电力网络,输电线路,热带气旋,故障概率,故障集,可靠性

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Abstract:

针对近年来热带气旋灾害屡次造成我国沿海电网电力设备损坏甚至局部地区停电的现状,提出了一种由热带气旋引发电网群发性故障的动态事故集生成方法。通过对线路历史故障率统计数据的折算,建立单位档距线路故障率随其所受风压的变化曲线,根据单位档距线路的实时风压信息计算出单位档距线路的故障率及其在所选取时窗内发生故障的概率;将整回线路视作由若干档距串联而成的可靠性系统,由可靠性公式计算出线路发生故障的概率。进一步地,通过设定允许进入故障集的概率门槛或故障截止重数以选择故障组合状态,对满足条件的故障状态进行排序,形成群发性动态故障集。通过测试电网受高强度热带气旋影响的算例,采用设定概率门槛的方法选取故障组合状态并排序生成动态故障集,从而验证了方法的实用性。

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