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电网技术  2014 

电网运行断面的自组织临界态辨识和量化分析

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.08.009, PP. 2076-2081

Keywords: OPA模型,自组织临界态辨识,自组织临界态量化分析,电网运行断面

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Abstract:

电力系统自组织临界性表现在电网演化的长期过程和某个静态运行断面的运行过程2个方面。针对电网演化的长期过程进行连锁故障建模研究较为成熟,而针对静态运行断面进行连锁故障建模研究则较少。建立了一个基于去除慢动态过程的OPA模型,用于电网静态运行断面连锁故障的仿真计算。该模型不考虑电力系统的慢动态过程,而是基于某个静态断面进行仿真计算,单次仿真完成后系统重新恢复至原始运行断面,完成多次仿真后得到该运行断面下的大停电负荷损失分布数据。采用极大似然估计法和K-S检验法对大停电分布数据进行负荷损失累积概率分布律参数估计和检验,进而判断该运行断面下电网是否处于自组织临界态。然后针对处于不同自组织临界态的系统,建立了自组织临界态风险评估指标,将自组织临界态风险进行了数值化表征。

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