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高速公路单车事故建模方法

, PP. 89-94

Keywords: 交通安全,单车事故率,面积函数,影响因子,回归分析

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Abstract:

利用随机试验和数学均值化原理,对收集的单车事故数据进行了分析,运用定积分的元素法计算单车事故率面积函数,并对其拟合求导。结合面积函数的线形变化规律,筛选出单车交通事故影响因子和道路几何要素变量,逐一建立了各独立变量对事故率的影响模型,并确定了最终的变量。采用回归分析方法构建不同半径和直线长度的单车事故预测模型,利用三维曲面图对模型进行分析,提出了高速公路设计中适宜采用的半径和直线长度取值区间。研究结果表明高速公路设计中采用直线-曲线-直线的线形组合时,适宜曲线半径区间应为2500,3500和直线长度区间应为1000,2000;在曲线半径大于不设超高的最小半径时,与之相连的直线长度宜取1000m。

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