Importantpopulationviabilityanalysisparametersforgiantpandas(Aliuropodamelanoleuca)

Populationviabilityanalysis(PVA)isatooltoevaluatetheriskofextinctionforendangeredspeciesandaidconservationdecision-making.ThequalityofPVAoutputisdependentonparametersrelatedtopopulationdynamicsandlife-history;however,ithasbeendifficulttocollectthisinformationforthegiantpanda(Aliuropodamelanoleuca),arareandendangeredmammalnativetoChina,confinedtosome30fragmentedhabitatpatches.Sincegiantpandasarelong-lived,maturelate,havelowerreproductiverates,andshowlittlesexualdimorphism,obtainingdatatoperformadequatePVAhasbeendifficult.Here,wedevelopaparametersensitivityindexbymodelingthedynamicsofsixgiantpandapopulationsintheMinshanMountains,inordertodeterminetheparametersmostinfluentialtogiantpandapopulations.Ourdatashowsthatthegiantpandapopulationsaremostsensitivetochangesinfourfemaleparameters:initialbreedingage,reproductiverate,mortalityratebetweenage0and1,andmortalityrateofadults.Theparametersensitivityindexstronglycorrelatedwithinitialpopulationsize,assmallerpopulationsweremoresensitivetochangesinthesefourvariables.ThismodelsuggeststhatdemographicparametersoffemaleshavemoreinfluenceontheresultsofPVA,indicatingthatfemalesmayplayamoreimportantroleingiantpandapopulationdynamicsthanmales.Consequently,reintroductionoffemaleindividualstoasmallgiantpandapopulationshouldbeahighpriorityforconservationefforts.Ourfindingsformatechnicalbasisforthecomingprogramofgiantpandareintroduction,andinformwhichparametersarecrucialtosuccessfullyandfeasiblymonitoringwildgiantpandapopulations.