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武汉大气污染与缺血性心脏病死亡关系季节差异

DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2015-31-07-19, PP. 926-929

Keywords: 大气污染,缺血性心脏病,死亡率,季节,广义相加模型

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Abstract:

?目的评价大气污染物的短期暴露对居民缺血性心脏病(IHD)死亡的影响及其影响的季节差异。方法收集湖北省武汉市江岸区2002年1月1日—2010年12月31日IHD死亡监测资料和同期环境监测中心大气污染物浓度数据,应用基于广义相加模型的时间序列分析方法,分别构建全季节模型和分季节模型,定量评价大气污染对居民IHD死亡的影响。结果4个季节中,大气污染水平和IHD死亡人数均在冬季达到最高,冬季可吸入颗粒物PM10、SO2和NO2年均浓度分别为(143.8±70.9)、(71.0±42.4)和(66.5±25.6)μg/m3,IHD日均死亡1.64人。全季节模型中,1d滞后(Lag1)的PM10浓度每升高10μg/m3,IHD死亡率增加0.86%(95%CI=0.22%~1.51%),其他气态污染物SO2、NO2与全季节IHD死亡无统计学关联;分季节建模后,PM10、SO2和NO2对IHD死亡的影响均出现在冬季,其他季节的影响均无统计学意义;其中,1d滞后的PM10、SO2和NO2浓度每升高10μg/m3,冬季IHD死亡率分别增加1.40%(95%CI=0.58%~2.23%)、1.65%(95%CI=0.28%~3.05%)和3.05%(95%CI=0.92%~5.23%)。结论武汉市大气污染的短期暴露会引起IHD死亡风险增加,且大气污染对IHD死亡的作用效应呈现一定的季节差异,冬季的影响表现更为明显。

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