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快速路合流区交通事故影响因素研究

, PP. 98-105

Keywords: 交通工程,事故影响因素,主成分分析,合流区,交通状态,道路线形

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Abstract:

?为给道路安全设计和交通安全管理提供参考,以名古屋快速路网为例对合流区交通事故特性及其影响因素进行了研究。采用统计分析对事故率随交通密度的变化进行回归,根据其单调性将交通流分为低/高密度非饱和流与饱和流3种状态;利用主成分分析法对各状态下事故诱因的重要性进行鉴别,并对其影响机理进行分析。结果表明:事故率在非饱和流状态下随交通密度呈U形变化,在饱和流状态下随交通密度快速增加;道路线形和交通状态是2个主要的事故诱因,线形连续性越差,事故率越大;随着主线交通密度的增大,合流率对事故的影响增强,在饱和流状态下其为最重要的诱因之一;加速车道是不可忽视的因素,非饱和流状态下车道越长事故率越高,饱和流状态下车道越短事故率越大。

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