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雾霾对私家车主交通方式选择行为的影响

, PP. 105-110

Keywords: 交通工程,交通方式选择,非集计模型,雾霾,私家车主

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Abstract:

?为分析雾霾天气对城市中的私家车主出行方式选择行为的影响,以北京市为例,通过向私家车主发放350份调查问卷获得基础数据,首先利用回归模型进行初步的单因素分析,对空气质量与私家车主交通方式选择的关系进行分析,进而建立包括空气污染程度、公共交通质量等多因素的非集计模型,最后对不同性别私家车主的交通方式偏好进行分析。研究结果表明:随着空气污染程度的提高,私家车主选择公共交通出行的比例逐渐增加,特别是当空气质量指数超过200时,继续选择私家车出行的比例快速减少,而选择公共交通出行的比例相对急速上升;公共交通服务质量的提升可以有效促进私家车主放弃私家车和采用公共交通出行,会争取更多的女性私家车主改用公共交通出行;研究结果对制定更科学的出行政策,优化居民出行方式结构和减少城市空气污染具有指导意义。

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