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基于全天空成像仪的光伏电站水平面总辐射预报

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.01.006, PP. 50-56

Keywords: 地基云图,畸变还原,辐射预测,云类型识别

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Abstract:

准确地水平面总辐射预测是进行光伏功率预测的前提,对提高光伏发电消纳能力具有重要意义。文章基于地基云图观测,建立了云图遮挡复原和畸变还原算法,以及分类型的云团分类识别与运动预测算法,最终实现对水平面总辐射的预测。为验证提出的算法,利用南京市浦口区2012年6月的TSI-880全天空成像仪和地面总辐射计观测数据对水平面总辐射进行预测。结果表明该方法具有较高的预测精度,能够有效地预测由云遮挡造成的辐射跳变过程。

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