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风电功率爬坡事件预测时间窗选取建模

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.13.002, PP. 3204-3210

Keywords: 风电爬坡事件,预测时间窗,冗余时间,爬坡持续时间,可预测性

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Abstract:

为了解决多长时间段的风电功率预测数据能够有效地完成爬坡事件预测,提出爬坡预测窗口的选取问题。假设以一个预测窗内能完整预测一个爬坡事件为目标,根据预测时间窗内冗余信息最小建立数学规划模型。然后,结合历史爬坡事件持续时间的统计分析和风电功率数据本身的可预测性研究,分析模型最优解的存在性并给出模型的参数约束范围和实现算法。其次,以美国BPA区域的风电功率数据为实例,根据具体的模型求解过程,仿真得到模型的最优解,并以该最优解作为预测时间窗的选取。最后,根据预测评估指标验证该时间窗具有较好的预测性能,从而说明该预测窗口对爬坡事件分析的有效性,和该预测窗口选取模型用于爬坡事件预测的可行性。

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