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计及不确定性的电力系统随机响应模式估计方法

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.11.012, PP. 2735-2742

Keywords: 电力系统,随机响应,低频振荡,模式估计,不确定性

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Abstract:

电力系统随机响应的低频振荡模式参数能够反映电网小干扰稳定特性。针对系统正常运行下响应的随机性所引起的振荡模式参数估计的不确定性问题,提出一种同时估计振荡模式参数及其不确定性边界的方法。采用预测误差方法辨识随机响应的自回归滑动平均模型,在此基础上,通过推导自回归模型参数的协方差矩阵与振荡模式参数方差之间的联系,计算低频振荡模式参数及其不确定性边界。通过四阶线性系统和新英格兰系统的蒙特卡罗仿真,对比模式参数的经验样本方差和估计的方差均值,结果表明利用单组数据能够准确估计出模式参数的不确定性边界。最后利用WECC系统实测数据验证了模式参数及其不确定性边界估计的有效性。

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