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变电站状态检修决策模型与求解

, PP. 196-202

Keywords: 变电站,状态检修,故障风险,检修风险,马尔科夫过程

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Abstract:

在电网状态检修概念引导下,针对设备在拓扑上仅与变电站关联的设备状态检修决策问题,在假设变电站进出线状态一定的前提下,建立变电站状态检修决策模型。在对变电站实施状态检修决策必要性阐述的基础上,提出在设备状态监测、预测基础上的设备状态转移马尔科夫过程,并基于此方程对前瞻时间内设备状态概率进行求解。进而给出变电站因设备状态检修时机而变动的检修风险和故障风险的数学表达。最后以故障风险与检修风险和的最小为目标,考虑满足状态检修的相关约束条件,构建了变电站状态检修决策模型,并基于成熟的遗传算法实现对该模型的求解。通过简单算例,阐明该研究的必要性和有效性。该研究是电网状态检修理论的深入,是实施复杂电网状态检修分解协调决策过程的重要环节之一。

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