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中国沙漠  2012 

北半球千年温度集成重建所使用的代用序列述评——以石笋为例

Keywords: 中世纪暖期,温度重建,温度信号,降水量信号,石笋

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Abstract:

充分掌握过去全球气候变化的规律,是分析现在全球气候变化的关键。为了重建近2000a的全球(主要是北半球)的温度时空格局,Mann使用了1209条代用序列。主要评价Mann等在重建中世纪暖期以来(公元800年以来)全球(主要是北半球)的温度时空格局时,所使用的46条代用序列中的8条石笋序列。其中北半球的序列(6条)要多于南半球的序列(2条)。通过对所选石笋序列的文献检索和科学评估,认为Mann等最初选用的8条石笋序列和筛选后剩余的6条石笋序列并非都代表温度信号,其中只有两条序列是原作者认为代表温度信号的,代表降水量信号的序列要多于代表温度信号的序列。所以Mann等选用这些序列重建温度有待商榷。由于石笋代用指标本身的复杂性,其气候指示意义仍然存在争议。

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