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贸易风险经济影响与区域分布的实证研究——以广东省为例

DOI: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.04.009, PP. 445-453

Keywords: 广东省,空间分析,贸易风险,贸易与就业

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Abstract:

对外贸易是一国或地区与世界经济联系的重要纽带,经济全球化会通过进出口贸易对一国或地区经济带来就业和经济增长等方面的风险.因此研究贸易风险及其区域分布对于稳定区域经济增长与扩大就业具有重要的现实意义.本文以广东省为例,研究贸易风险的经济影响及其区域空间分布.实证研究表明,出口的增长对于地区经济的成长和就业的增长尤其重要;然而,过分地依赖出口,将不利于地区经济的稳健成长,也不利于就业的增长,贸易依存度高的地区一旦出口受阻,则会带来失业增加、产业受损等不利后果.对广东省贸易风险的空间分布分析表明,贸易风险较高的地区主要集中于珠三角地区,尤其是东莞、深圳、惠州和珠海等地区.这对贸易风险防范具有重要指导意义,当全球经济有衰退趋势时,贸易依存度较高的地区应提前做好贸易风险防范的措施.

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