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货物运输能源消耗影响因素

, PP. 153-158

Keywords: 运输经济,货物运输,完全分解模型,能源消耗,运输结构

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Abstract:

在分析货物运输能源消耗与能耗强度、运输结构和货物周转量3因素关系的基础上,运用完全分解模型进行量化分析,测算了1990—2007年3个因素对货物运输能源消耗变动的影响效果。结果表明,货物运输量的增长是货物运输能源消耗增长的主要驱动力,同时运输结构中能耗强度较高的运输方式市场份额的增加加剧了这种增长的趋势,而技术进步带来的能耗强度的降低不足以抑制能源消耗的增加。货物运输能源消耗增长趋势不可避免,需要综合规划,促进交通运输业的可持续发展。

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