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地理科学 2004

Hurst指数估计中存在的若干问题——以在气候变化研究中的应用为例

, PP. 177-182

江田汉,邓莲堂

Keywords: R/S分析,Hurst指数,长程依赖性

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Abstract:

用7种方法估计中国近百年月平均温度距平序列的Hurst指数,并用随机重排法与高斯随机数做均值对比。结果表明R/S分析法、小波分析法和Whittle法优于残差方差法、绝对值法、聚合方差法和周期图法;中国近百年月平均温度距平序列的Hurst指数的估计值约为0.76±0.003,表现出较强的持续性。未来中国月平均温度变化将与自20世纪80年代增温的趋势一致,将来整体趋势还是增温。

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