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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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中国天气发生器的降水模拟
DOI: 10.11821/xb200405006, PP. 689-698
Keywords: 天气发生器,降水,马尔科夫链,GAMMA分布,中国
Abstract:
天气发生器是气候影响评价研究的重要工具，在气候变化、地球生态系统及极端气候事件发生的风险分析等方面有着广泛的应用。为了建立一个适用于中国广大地区的天气发生器，需要对各种模拟模型及其参数的估计进行深入的研究。其中降水的模拟及其参数的估计是关键，因为气温、辐射等其他气候要素的模拟依赖于降水的发生。本文重点介绍了常用的随机降水模拟模型两状态一阶马尔科夫链和两参数GAMMA分布。根据中国672个气象站点1961~2000年的逐日降水资料，计算了降水转移概率P(WD)、P(WW)及GAMMA分布参数ALPHA和BETA，并分析了4个参数在中国各地的空间分布特征与不同地区各参数的季节分布特征。最后根据各地不同月份计算的四个降水模拟参数对中国各地的逐日降水进行模拟，并利用1971~2000年的实测数据对30年模拟结果在统计意义上进行了检验，模拟结果较好。
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