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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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过去150年长三角地区的春季物候变化
DOI: 10.11821/xb201201005, PP. 45-52
Keywords: 历史日记,春季物候,长三角地区,过去150年
Abstract:
利用中国历史日记中的长三角地区春季物候记录,重建了该地区1834年以来的春季物候期变化序列,同时结合气温观测资料分析了该序列对温度变化的指示意义。主要结论有(1)1834-1893年,长三角地区春季物候在波动中逐渐推迟,但19世纪末起突然出现大幅提前;1900-1990年以年代际波动为主要特征,1990-2010年又再次出现大幅提前;1834年以来,该地区春季物候最迟的年份为1893年,最早的年份为2007年,分别较1977-1996年平均推迟27天和提早17天。(2)长三角地区的春季物候期变化与该地区上年12月-当年3月及当年1-3月气温变化的相关系数分别超过-0.75、-0.80,可很好地指示该地区的冬季与初春(特别是1-3月)气温变化;这为进一步集成多种代用资料重建历史时期的中国温度变化提供了重要数据基础和依据。
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