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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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新疆地区最大连续降水事件时空变化特征
DOI: 10.11821/xb201203003, PP. 312-320
Keywords: 最大连续降水,极端降水,Mann-Kendall检验,气候变化,新疆
Abstract:
基于新疆51个站点1960-2005年的日降水资料,从最大连续降水事件出发,以年、夏、冬为研究时期,定义描绘最大连续降水事件的日数、降水量和降水强度的9个极端降水指标,研究最大连续降水事件的时空概率特征。本文应用改进的Mann-Kendall法对各指标变化趋势进行检验,采用基于F检验的线形分析计算其变化率。研究结果表明(1)年和夏季最容易发生2天的最大连续降水天数,最大连续降水事件日数越长,降水强度越低;冬季易发生1天的最大连续降水天数,随最大连续降水事件日数的增加,降水强度增加;(2)近年来,日数短的连续降水天数事件频率减少,而随降水日数的增加;降水量有增加趋势;因此,新疆降水有极端化的趋势;(3)新疆有湿润化趋势,而南疆在夏季的湿润趋势比北疆明显,北疆在冬季比南疆显著。
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