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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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基于验潮数据的西北太平洋区域海面变化预测
DOI: 10.11821/xb201101011, PP. 111-122
Keywords: 海面预测,时空分异,RegEM,MGF,MTM,西北太平洋
Abstract:
区域海面变化研究受到验潮站数据时段不一致、空间分布不均匀及影响要素复杂性和不确定性等因素制约。本文基于西北太平洋海域22个站位的验潮数据，应用RegEM及MTM方法探讨其多尺度波动过程的时空差异，基于空间邻近性及有序聚类方法，将区域海面变化划分为5个区段(渤海—黄海北部沿岸、黄—东海中国沿岸、东海海域日本沿岸、东海南部沿岸以及南海西北部沿岸)，进而利用MGF方法对各站位进行中长期的统计预测，并结合主成分方法进行区域综合。结果显示各区2001-2030年的海面变化平均速率分别为1.23~1.27mm/a，3.30~3.34mm/a，2.72~2.76mm/a，1.43~1.47mm/a和1.13~1.15mm/a，而区域海面上升速率为2.01~2.11mm/a。
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