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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布
DOI: 10.11821/xb201101003, PP. 25-37
Keywords: 中国东部,旱涝分布,东亚夏季风,年代际变化
Abstract:
利用1850-2008年我国东部地区90个测站的旱涝等级和北半球夏季海平面气压格点等资料，使用BP典型相关等方法，分析了近159年旱涝等级与东亚夏季海平面气压的耦合相关关系。利用关键区域的海平面气压资料，定义出与我国东部旱涝分布有密切联系的东亚夏季风指数，在此基础上分析了东亚夏季风年代际变化对我国东部旱涝分布的影响。结果表明(1)近159年中国东部旱涝具有4种典型空间分布型，即华南与中国东部其他地区旱涝趋势相反型、黄淮地区与长江流域及其以南旱涝趋势相反型、江淮流域与中国东部其他地区旱涝趋势相反型和中国东部与西部旱涝趋势相反型。近159年东亚夏季海平面气压场主要呈现亚洲大陆与西太平洋海平面气压强弱相反的分布特征；(2)本文定义的夏季风指数的年代际变化与我国东部旱涝典型分布型的年代际变化有密切关系，但两者的相关关系并不是稳定不变的，存在显著的年代际位相差异，即20世纪20年代之前，当东亚夏季风偏强(弱)时，长江流域以北容易偏旱(偏涝)，长江流域及其以南容易偏涝(偏旱)，20世纪20年代以后，当东亚夏季风偏强(弱)时，长江流域以北容易偏涝(偏旱)，长江流域及其以南容易偏旱(偏涝)。可见，使用较长年代资料进行考察，研究结论丰富了大多数使用近50-60年资料的研究结果。东亚夏季风与我国东部旱涝分布之间关系的年代际位相差异，可能与东亚夏季风对太阳活动等外强迫的非线性反馈相联系
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