|
OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
|
|
|
|
基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征
DOI: 10.11821/xb201101001, PP. 3-12
Keywords: 极端降水,联合分布,Copula,干旱半干旱地区,新疆
Abstract:
依据新疆地区53个雨量站1957-2009年日降水资料，根据研究需要，定义了8个极端降水指标。运用K-S法确定降水指标最适概率分布函数，确定十年一遇极端降水量值；在此基础上，采用Copula非参数估计方法，通过AkaikeInformationCriterion(AIC)法确定两降水指标联合分布函数，系统分析极端降水单变量极值及降水极值二维联合概率分布特征，研究新疆地区降水极值概率变化的空间演变特征。研究结果表明(1)北疆比南疆湿润，北疆发生极端强降水的概率大，而南疆发生极端弱降水的概率较大，另外，相比较而言，山区要比平原降水多；(2)极端强、弱降水同年发生的概率分布特征复杂，从降水天数来看，一年内同时发生长历时强降水与弱降水事件的概率山区较平原大；从极端降水总量来看，同时发生强降水与弱降水事件的概率在平原区较山区为大；从极端降水强度来看，同时发生强度较大的强降水与弱降水事件的概率在天山南坡较其他地区为大；(3)洪旱发生概率与地形有关，天山是洪旱发生的分界线，山区发生洪旱灾害的概率比平原小。
| [1] | WangYuqing,ZhouLi.ObservedtrendsinextremeprecipitationeventsinChinaduring1961-2001andtheassociatedchangesinlarge-scalecirculation.GeophysicalReseachLetters,2004,32:L09707.doi:10.1029/2005GL022574
|
| [2] | ZhaiPanmao,ZouXukai.ChangesintemperatureandprecipitationandtheirimpactsondroughtinChinaduring1951-2003.AdvancesinClimateChangeResearch,2005,1(1):16-18.[翟盘茂,邹旭恺.1951-2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响.气候变化研究进展,2005,1(1):16-18.]
|
| [3] | JiangFengqing,ZhuCheng,MuGuijinetal.RecentmagnificationoffloodanddroughtcalamitiesinXinjiang:Ananalysisofanthropogeneticeffects.ActaGeographicaSinica,2002,57(1):57-66.[姜逢清,朱诚,穆桂金.当代新疆洪旱灾害扩大化:人类活动的影响分析.地理学报,2002,57(1):57-66.]
|
| [4] | SternRD.Thecalculationofprobabilitydistributionsformodelsofdailyprecipitation.Arch.Met.Geoph.Biokl.,1980,28:137-147.
|
| [5] | SpiegelMR,SchillerJ,SrinivasanRAetal.OutlinesofTheoryandProblemsofProbabilityandStatistics.2nded.USA:McGraw-HillCompanies,2000:2-7.
|
| [6] | WilksDS.Interannualvariabilityandextreme-valuecharacteristicsofseveralstochasticdailyprecipitationmodels.AgriculturalandForestMeteorology,1999,93:153-169.
|
| [7] | HoskingJRM.L-Moments:Analysisandestimationofdistributionsusinglinearcombinationsoforderstatistics.JournaloftheRoyalStatisticalSociety,1990,52(1):105-124.
|
| [8] | ZhangQiang,XuChongyu,ChenYongqinDavidetal.SpatialassessmentofhydrologicalterationacrossthePearlRiverDelta,China,andpossibleunderlyingcauses.HydrologicalProcesses,2009,23:1565-1574.
|
| [9] | XuChongyu,WiddenE,HalldinS.Modelinghydrologicalconsequencesofclimatechange-progressandchallenge.AdvancesinAtmosphericSciences,2005,22(6):789-797.
|
| [10] | YueS.Jointprobabilitydistributionofannualmaximumstormpeaksandamountsasrepresentedbydailyrainfalls.HydroscienceJournal,2000,45(2):315-326.
|
| [11] | ZhangL,SinghVP.BivariaterainfallfrequencydistributionsusingArchimedeancopulas.JournalofHydrology,2007,332:93-109.
|
| [12] | BuheA,TsuchiyaK,KanekoMetal.LandcoverofoasesandforestinXinjiang,ChinaretrievedfromASTERdata.AdvancesinSpaceResearch,2007,39(1):39-45.
|
| [13] | ZhangQiang,XuChongyu,ChenXiaohongetal.StatisticalbehavioursofprecipitationregimesinChinaandtheirlinkswithatmosphericcirculation1960-2005.InternationalJournalofClimatology,2010,doi:10.1002/joc.2193.
|
| [14] | LiXM,JiangFQ,LiLHetal.Spatialandtemporalvariabilityofprecipitationconcentrationindex,concentrationdegreeandconcentrationperiodinXinjiang,China.InternationalJournalofClimatology,2010,doi:10.1002/joc.2181.
|
| [15] | XueYan.ChangetrendoftheprecipitationandairtemperatureinXinjiangsincerecent50years.AridZoneResearch,2003,20(2):127-130.[薛燕.半个世纪以来新疆降水和气温的变化趋势.干旱区研究,2003,20(2):127-130.]
|
| [16] | ShiYafeng,ZhangXiangsong.Thesurfacewaterresourcesinfluencesinnorthwestaridareaofclimatechangesanditstrend.ScienceinChina,1995,25(9):968-977.[施雅风,张祥松.气候变化对西北干旱区地表水资源的影响和未来趋势.中国科学,1995,25(9):968-977.]
|
| [17] | RenGuoyu.SpatialpatternsofchangetrendinrainfallofChina.QuarterlyJournalofAppliedMeteorlolgy,2000,11(3):322-330.[任国玉.我国降水变化趋势的空间特征.应用气象学报,2000,11(3):322-330.]
|
| [18] | RichardJ.AreviewoftwentiethcenturydroughtindicesusedintheUnitedStates.AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,2002:1149-1165.
|
| [19] | FatichiS,CaporaliE.AcomprehensiveanalysisofchangesinprecipitationregimeinTuscany.InternationalJournalofClimatology,2009,29:1883-1893.
|
| [20] | FrichP,AlexanderLV,Della-MartaPetal.Observedcoherentchangesinclimaticextremesduringthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury.ClimateResearch,2002,19:193-212.
|
| [21] | RamosMC,Martinez-CasanovasJA.TrendsinprecipitationconcentrationandextremesintheMediterraneanPenedes-Anoiaregion,NESpain.ClimaticChange,2006,457-474.
|
| [22] | FrankJ,MasseJ.TheKolmogorov-Smirnovtestforgoodnessoffit.JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,1951,46(253):68-78.
|
| [23] | NelsenRB.AnIntroductiontoCopulas.Portland:SpringerScience,2006:7-269.
|
| [24] | XiaoYi.MultivariatehydrologicalanalysisandestimationmethodsbasedonCopulafunction[D].Wuhan:WuhanUniversity,2007.[肖义.基于Copula函数的多变量水文分析计算方法及应用研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2007.]
|
| [25] | EmbrechtsP.ModellingDependencewithCopulasandApplicationstoRiskManagement.Switzerland,2001.
|
| [26] | AkaikeH.Anewlookatthestatisticalmodelidentification.IEEETransactionsonAutomaticControl,1974,19(6):716-723.
|
| [27] | GenestC,RivestLP.StatisticalinferenceproceduresforbivariateArchimedeanCopulas.AmericanStatisticalAssociation,1993,88(423):1034-1043.
|
| [28] | SalvadoriG,MicheleC.FrequencyanalysisviaCopulas:Theoreticalaspectsandapplicationstohydrologicalevents.WaterResourceResearch,2004,doi:10.1029/2004WR003133.
|
| [29] | ZhangYing.PrecipitationfeaturesandwaterresourcesstabilityinXinjiang.JournalofAridLandResources&Environment,1992,6(2):80-84.[张英.新疆降水丰、旱特点及水资源的稳定度.干旱区资源与环境,1992,6(2):80-84.]
|
Full-Text
|
|
Contact Us
service@oalib.com QQ:3279437679 
WhatsApp +8615387084133
|
|
