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近百年来自然和人为因素对亚洲季风降水影响的时间序列分析研究

, PP. 1718-1724

Keywords: 全球变暖,亚洲季风,奇异谱分析(SSA),石笋氧同位素(&delta,18O)

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Abstract:

?近百年来,全球地表平均温度呈持续上升的趋势,是人为和自然因素共同作用的结果;而对同时期人类活动在亚洲季风降水变化中所起的作用仍有不同看法.本文基于贵州董歌洞和甘肃万象洞近2000年来的石笋氧同位素(δ18O)记录,用奇异谱方法研究近百年来全球增温和CO2浓度增高背景下石笋δ18O的变化特征,探讨人类活动对东亚和南亚季风降水的可能影响.结果显示,上述两地近百年来的石笋δ18O变化趋势基本可以通过1900AD前自然序列的延伸得到重现.如果目前关于石笋δ18O记录反映季风降水量的解释正确的话,我们的分析结果则说明,虽然近100年来人类活动对温度有明显作用,但似乎没有对东亚和南亚季风降水变化趋势产生显著影响,使之大致保持了原有的自然趋势.这说明,过去全球温度变化对季风的影响是亟待解决的问题.

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