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冰川冻土  2011 

祁连山西段党河流域山区气候变化及对出山径流的影响与预估

, PP. 1259-1267

Keywords: 气候变化,祁连山区,出山径流,全球变暖,党河流域

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Abstract:

?在全球气候变暖背景下,依据党河山区气象台站的气温、降水和出山口水文站的径流等观测系列数据,分析得到近50余年来党河出山径流量的变化特征、趋势及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明近50余年来,党河山区气候转暖湿明显,气温上升,降水量增加、冰川消融增加。受山区气候变化影响,出山径流量总体亦呈增长趋势。从径流的补给来源与季节水量变化上讲,与主要受降水影响的河西走廊中、东部的黑河、石羊河水系不同,由于党河河源分布的冰川面积较多、个体较大,冰川融水受气温变化的影响更甚于降水。预计在未来几十年内,山区气候继续受向暖湿转化的影响,党河出山径流量呈持续增长的可能性较大。

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